Skip to main content

Recession will add to disinflationary pressure

We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive up the unemployment rate. As a result, we also expect the Fed to be in position to cut interest rates again from late 2023, which should trigger a rebound in GDP growth in 2024. 

Note: We’ll be discussing the key takeaways from this report in an online session shortly after the release of September CPI at 11:00 ET/16:00 BST on Thursday, 13th OctoberRegister here to join.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services

Get access