The macroeconomic fallout from Russia's call-up of military reservists in September and its formal annexation of Ukrainian territory last week has continued to mount, resulting in tighter Western sanctions, a mass fleeing of people from Russia and a mini bank run. Developments around the war are now having a bigger direct impact on the population and will weigh on economic activity for some time. Meanwhile, Poland's central bank left interest rates on hold this week but comments from Governor Glapinski after the meeting suggest that its final act may be at November's Inflation Report meeting. We think the tightening cycle will end with a 25bp hike.
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