US Economic Outlook Economy will bend not break under higher rates We expect the economy to bend rather than break under the pressure of a rapid monetary tightening by the Fed. We anticipate that real economic growth will remain consistently below its 2% potential... 12th April 2022 · 22 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The latest batch of data brought some signs of a softening in labour demand, but with the unemployment rate having fallen to pre-COVID levels, job vacancies at a record high and wage growth rising... 12th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) Another solid rise in employment drove the unemployment rate down to a 48-year low of just 5.3% in March, but the still-muted pace of wage growth suggests the Bank of Canada may not need to tighten... 8th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA signals June rate hike is coming After the RBA this week signalled that it will no longer be patient when it comes to tightening policy, the consensus has come around to our long-held view that the Bank will start to lift interest... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to tighten more sharply than most anticipate We expect Australia’s GDP to surpass its pre-virus trend as soon as this quarter and to keep expanding at a robust pace thereafter. While wage growth will accelerate only gradually, we expect... 7th April 2022 · 24 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Feb.) The jobs recovery continued in February, for both total employment and office-based roles. But the divergence in performance of the last two years is persisting, reinforcing our view that many of the... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Feb. 22) Japanese wage growth strengthened in February and we think it will accelerate further over the coming months as overtime and bonus pay continue to recover. However, as the post-Omicron rebound wears... 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA wage talks, central banks turn hawkish, Tanzania-IMF Public sector wage negotiations will soon kick off in South Africa and there are reasons to think that officials may concede further ground to trade unions. Meanwhile, after central banks in South... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 431,000 rise in non-farm payrolls is another sign that the real economy has plenty of momentum, though with those gains now being helped by a stronger rebound in the labour force, there are signs... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Waiting for action Efforts to stabilise China’s financial markets have been a short term success. Although in aggregate March was one of the worst months on record for portfolio outflows from onshore markets, there were... 31st March 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Feb.) The euro-zone unemployment rate edged down yet again in February, to a record low of 6.8%. There is little sign yet that this is feeding through to higher wages. But labour market conditions are set... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ’s Yield Curve Control under threat We expect Japan’s economic output to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year. With the recovery from the pandemic complete, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.7% this year to just 1.0% in... 30th March 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Feb. 2022) Employment was unchanged in February after January’s sizeable fall. But with all domestic restrictions since lifted and activity resuming its recovery, employment is set for a strong rebound over the... 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook becomes more nuanced Less than a week after the Fed raised interest rates by 25bp at its policy meeting and issued projections showing that it intended to hike rates at each of the remaining six meetings this year, Chair... 25th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Support measures won’t prevent inflation reaching 2% The government is preparing fresh support measures to lower prices of petroleum products, which will reduce the drag on household incomes and will prevent inflation from breaching 2% for now. We still... 25th March 2022 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth set for gradual slowdown We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by 450,000 in March, marking the beginning of a gradual slowdown. The report should also provide further evidence that wage pressures are starting to ease. 24th March 2022 · 3 mins read
