Japan Economics Update Wage-price disinflation spiral looms This year’s Shunto should result in the strongest negotiated pay hikes in decades. But the average Japanese employee will have little to rejoice in. Weaker corporate profits as well as a likely... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) Activity data for the first two months were broadly as expected, showing a jump in consumer spending coupled with modest gains in investment and industrial output. High-frequency data suggest that... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) The labour market remained tight in January. Even so, the Bank of England will breathe a sigh of relief as wage growth is easing. Together with the collapse of a couple of US banks having tightened... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Economy on brink of mild recession The economy is on the brink of a mild recession but with underlying inflation still accelerating, we expect new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to end Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting in April. 13th March 2023 · 23 mins read
US Economics Weekly Financial risks could spoil Powell's hawkish plans Despite the strength of payrolls last month, the rest of February's labour market data was more mixed - with the unemployment rate rebounding and a smaller monthly gain in average hourly earnings. The... 10th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) Employment growth slowed sharply in February but the rise in hours worked suggests that the economy performed well last month. With the low unemployment rate putting upward pressure on wage growth... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response US Employment Report (Feb.) The above-consensus 311,000 increase in payroll employment last month confirms that the super-sized 504,000 gain in January wasn’t just a seasonal distortion, but the rest of February’s report will... 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA won’t hit pause just yet RBA Governor Phil Lowe’s statement that the Board was closer to a pause was interpreted by financial markets as a marginally dovish signal. However, with inflation yet to fall in earnest and the... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS show drop back in both openings and quits The JOLTS survey showed a drop back in job openings in January, with the timelier job postings data from Indeed pointing to a more marked deterioration in labour market conditions in February. 8th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Q4 collapse in domestic demand a bad omen Recent evidence about the health of the euro-zone economy has been mixed. National figures released so far suggest industrial production rebounded in January but retail sales remained very weak. And... 8th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jan. 2023) Wage growth fell sharply in January to its weakest in almost two years due largely to a slowdown in the growth of regular and overtime hours worked. Real wages posted the worst fall since the Global... 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2023 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress are more cautious and restrained than had seemed likely given the pro-growth messaging ahead of the event. That suggests... 6th March 2023 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Services inflation will remain stubbornly high With labour productivity falling the most on record over the past year, unit labour cost growth has surged even as hourly earnings growth has remained sluggish. While we expect productivity growth to... 6th March 2023 · 3 mins read
