Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s minimum wage hike and FX mortgage ruling The Polish government’s proposal this week to increase the national minimum wage by another eye-watering 20% or so in 2024 means that wage and inflation pressures could prove even more sticky than we... 16th June 2023 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update What explains the resilience of labour markets? The recent resilience of labour markets partly reflects a lag before higher interest rates feed through fully to economic activity. But employment has also been supported by the industry-led nature of... 15th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Strong wage growth to temper falls in inflation and rates The tightening of labour markets across Latin America in the past year or so has fuelled rapid wage growth in many economies and wage growth is likely to remain uncomfortably high for a while yet... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May 2023) With the labour market still firing on all cylinders, we’re happy with our forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift the cash rate all the way to 4.85% by September. 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Inflation falling, but core rates too sticky for comfort While headline CPI prints have been encouraging in recent months, policymakers will be nervous about the stickiness of core inflation. Average headline inflation in major advanced economies had... 14th June 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2023) The labour market became tighter in April and wage growth reaccelerated. That will only add to the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates further at the policy meeting next Thursday... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth mostly cyclical One reason for the slump in productivity is that the recent surge in working hours is producing diminishing returns. And we suspect that disruptions caused by the pandemic prevented firms from... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone recession to drag on The euro-zone has fallen into recession, albeit only by the finest of margins – the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in both Q4 last year and Q1 this year. The consensus view is that the worst is now... 9th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The fall in employment and the increase in the unemployment rate to 5.2% in May will probably not prevent the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates again at its July meeting, but the moves... 9th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Employment will not defy gravity forever We learnt this week that the euro-zone fell into recession but Eurostat confirmed that employment rose sharply in Q1. The labour market seems to have remained quite strong in April and May but we... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the “early hikers”: inflation remains sticky A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Rate cuts coming, but easing will be gradual The region’s strong start to the year is unlikely to be sustained and we expect growth across Latin America to come in weaker than most expect this year and next. Inflation will continue to fall, but... 8th June 2023 · 21 mins read
US Fed Watch Higher for longer There appears to be enough support on the FOMC for a pause at next week’s meeting, but the statement and new projections will make clear that this is not the end of the hiking cycle. We now expect... 7th June 2023 · 8 mins read
