UK wage growth edges down but remains above 5% Ashley Webb, at the consultancy Capital Economics, said the data would not be “enough to offset concerns about the recent persistence of services inflation”, and that the BoE was now more likely to... 18th July 2024 · Financial Times
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (May 2024) While the easing in wage growth in May was broadly in line with what the consensus and the Bank of England expected, it probably won’t offset the Bank’s concerns about the stickiness of services... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jun. 2024) Although job growth remained healthy last month, it didn’t prevent the unemployment rate from rising anew. And we suspect the rise in joblessness has much further to run. 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data point to some divergence in GDP growth in major economies in Q2. On the... 15th July 2024 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jul 2024) The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend that should continue over the coming quarters. However, it will be a while before policymakers can be confident that... 15th July 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: assessing the impact of the strike at Samsung Even if the strike by workers at Samsung Electronics is brought to an end soon, it has served to highlight once again the inflexibility of Korea’s labour market and the poor state of industrial... 12th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth set to slow Still elevated wage growth is partly due to earlier large gains in public sector pay, which are unlikely to be repeated. There are tentative signs that private sector wage growth is slowing, and the... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi pension changes, Saudi and Egypt Q1 BoP data The increase in Saudi Arabia statutory retirement age could increase the size of the labour force by 10% by 2040 and, in turn, lift potential GDP growth by as much as 1%-pt per annum. Meanwhile, Q1’s... 11th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update More dynamism not lifting productivity yet While there are tentative signs that Japan’s economy is becoming more dynamic, this has yet to produce significant improvements in aggregate productivity. We still think that a more meaningful pick-up... 10th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The latest data suggest that the recovery in euro-zone activity will continue – notwithstanding the uncertainty created by France’s snap election. The euro-zone labour market is tight, with... 9th July 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weakness boosts odds of another rate cut There was little to be encouraged by this week, with labour market conditions continuing to soften, the business surveys weak and the real estate board data pointing to a risk of renewed falls in... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun. 2024) The modest decline in employment and rise in the unemployment rate to 6.4% in June raise the chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again this month, and makes us more confident in our... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) We expect that a sustained period of below potential growth will help bring core inflation to the 2% target by the end of the year and persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on its last legs We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold for a seventh consecutive time at its meeting next Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However... 3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
