US Economics Update JOLTS data show labour market normalising The sharp fall in job openings in February shows that labour demand was cooling even before the recent banking turmoil and provides another reason to think that the Fed’s tightening cycle is nearly... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Uneven consumer recovery slowing down Consumer spending jumped during the first two months of the year as virus disruptions faded. The March retail sales data won’t be published for another couple of weeks. But the data we have so far... 3rd April 2023 · 11 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q1 2023) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector remains resilient, the outlook for the manufacturing sector has worsened materially. 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Minimum wage will surge again With Australian unions and the government both in agreement on the need to protect low-income workers, we expect a bumper 6% rise in the minimum wage this year. However, given the low share of workers... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yield Curve Control still on counted time The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma as inflationary pressures are becoming increasingly broad-based at the same time as economic activity is softening. What may tilt the balance towards the ending of... 31st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Feb. 2023) & Tokyo CPI (Mar. 2023) Labour market conditions loosened in February and should continue to do so over coming months due to a recession. Meanwhile, Tokyo CPI data showed a large increase in underlying inflation, as both... 31st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Feb. 2023) & Tokyo CPI (Mar. 2023) 31st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 46 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand cooling We expect the March employment report to show that the labour market was cooling even before the recent banking turmoil, with non-farm payrolls rising by a more modest 200,000 and annual wage growth... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus The future wage-price relationship: good, bad or ugly? Inflation is now being driven by wage growth rather than just the temporary influence of energy effects and goods shortages, raising fears that central banks will be forced to engineer sharp increases... 30th March 2023 · 20 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Full effects of high interest rates yet to be felt The economy made a strong start to 2023, but we continue to expect a moderate recession this year as high interest rates feed through and the banking issues in the US weigh on exports. The downturn... 29th March 2023 · 21 mins read
US Economic Outlook Banking stress adds to downside risks Acute bank stress will prompt a further tightening in credit conditions, which leaves us even more convinced that the economy will fall into recession this year. With core inflation remaining stickier... 29th March 2023 · 24 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening recovery to shift down a gear Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the... 29th March 2023 · 23 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recession needed to solve the inflation problem While CPI inflation will fall from 10.4% to around 3.5% this year, we think a recession involving a peak-to-trough fall in real GDP of around 1.0% is needed to ensure that domestic price pressures... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite recession The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
US Chart Pack Crisis easing, but economic damage yet to be felt Recent data suggest the economy’s strong start to the year was mostly sustained in February, with consumption growth set to accelerate in the first quarter, payroll employment growth robust and... 22nd March 2023 · 10 mins read
