Europe Chart Pack Q4 collapse in domestic demand a bad omen Recent evidence about the health of the euro-zone economy has been mixed. National figures released so far suggest industrial production rebounded in January but retail sales remained very weak. And... 8th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jan. 2023) Wage growth fell sharply in January to its weakest in almost two years due largely to a slowdown in the growth of regular and overtime hours worked. Real wages posted the worst fall since the Global... 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2023 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress are more cautious and restrained than had seemed likely given the pro-growth messaging ahead of the event. That suggests... 6th March 2023 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Services inflation will remain stubbornly high With labour productivity falling the most on record over the past year, unit labour cost growth has surged even as hourly earnings growth has remained sluggish. While we expect productivity growth to... 6th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Widespread downgrades to office-based job forecasts Our new forecasts for metro employment growth have prompted limited change in the rankings for total jobs over the next three years. But, there are two shifts, both owing much to recent and likely... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Wage pressures, Mexico’s Tesla plant Labour market data released across the region this week flew under the radar, but the figures provide worrying signs that rapid wage growth in Brazil will continue to keep core inflation high. We take... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Private consumption will weaken further this year While Q4 GDP was broadly in line in with our expectations, the details show that the Australian consumer is on weaker ground than we had thought. The confluence of falling real disposable incomes... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy headed for recession We're expecting industrial production to rebound strongly in February. Even so, industrial output will still slump this quarter, pointing to a larger q/q fall in Q1 GDP than we’re forecasting. However... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan. 23) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 23) The unemployment fell slightly in January but we’re still expecting it to rise through mid-year due to an economic downturn. Meanwhile, energy inflation fell by less than we expected in Tokyo as... 3rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2023) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 2023) 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Assessing the inflation threat from EM labour markets Labour markets look very tight in Central Europe and a handful of other EMs (particularly in Latin America), and we think that wage growth is unlikely to fall far enough in these countries to bring... 2nd March 2023 · 19 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to drop back to trend After the blowout 517,000 gain in January, we expect a more modest 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in February. But given the potential impact of weather and seasonality effects in January there... 2nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Will rising labour supply help wage pressures to ease? One development that would help to ease wage pressures would be an increase in the labour supply; there is still a significant group of countries where the pandemic is having lingering effects. The... 28th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Politics and the public finances Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, are both facing slow-burning debt problems. In Nigeria at least, elections on Saturday offer an opportunity to shift towards... 24th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Market pressure on Yield Curve Control intensifying Deputy Governor Amamiya’s reason for rejecting the governorship has made clear that the government wants to pivot away from the ultra-easy monetary policy of the past decade. As a result, market bets... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
