UK Economics Update Comparing CE forecasts to the consensus Being ranked by the Sunday Times as the top UK economic forecaster for 2022 is a great accolade and has generated a lot of interest in what we expect to happen next. Our forecasts for 2023 imply a... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Domestic inflation easing, but labour market still tight The easing in core services inflation suggests that interest rates won't rise much further, perhaps from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.25% or 4.50%. But we suspect the Bank of England will need to see more... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weaker labour market will keep a lid on wage growth While the second consecutive fall in employment in January may partly reflect seasonal distortions, there can be little doubt that the labour market is rapidly losing momentum. The unemployment rate... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update French wage growth to remain strong We think French wage inflation will remain much stronger than in the pre-pandemic period this year. This is not least because of the automatic adjustments to inflation of the minimum wage and... 16th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recessions postponed, not cancelled A raft of strong data out of the US have poured cold water on the idea that its economy has tumbled into recession at the start of 2023. And this comes after GDP data revealed that the euro-zone and... 16th February 2023 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2023) The weakness in January’s labour market data shows that rapid rate hikes are starting to cool activity, but with inflation still far too high that won’t prevent the RBA from tightening policy for a... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 23) 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Wage pressures will take time to alleviate in CEE Signs of softening labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe support our view that intense wage pressures in the region will ease in the coming months. Even so, we still think that wage growth... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Making sense of the strength of employment The surge in employment in January highlights that some sectors are still recovering strongly and raises the prospect that the economy could avoid recession, although we still judge that a modest one... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) December’s labour market data showed that, despite an easing in labour demand, labour market conditions stayed tight and the market continued to support strong wage growth. The Bank of England will be... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Does unemployment need to rise? Central banks need wage growth to slow significantly before they can judge that inflation is firmly under control. The least painful way for this to happen is for the recent rise in “mismatch” between... 13th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong employment won’t force the Bank to do more The surge in employment and rise in hours worked in January suggest that economic activity continued to expand at the start of 2023 and present clear upside risks to our forecasts for GDP growth... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets coming round to the Fed’s view on rates Markets have continued to swing round to the Fed’s view that rate cuts are unlikely this year. We still believe that those cuts are coming, however, as economic growth disappoints and core inflation... 10th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The surge in employment and rise in hours worked in January suggest that GDP growth will be stronger than we anticipated this quarter. However, the decline in wage growth means that unexpected... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
