Asset Allocation Update Will a rising tide continue to lift all the S&P 500’s boats? We wouldn’t be surprised if the “non-tech” sectors of the S&P 500 continued to make gains over the rest of 2024, but we don’t expect them to keep pace with the tech giants as well as they have lately... 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily UK equities may keep doing well, but not outperform While we think that equities in the UK will continue to rise over the next couple of years, we suspect they will keep underperforming those in the US, and we see little scope for valuations to help... 26th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A few more thoughts on the renminbi conundrum Push-back from the authorities in China and Japan has stabilised their currencies against the US dollar today, and our base case remains that policymakers will prevent destabilising depreciations in... 25th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the latest drop in the renminbi While the current backdrop may keep the renminbi on the back foot against the dollar in the short term, we doubt that these headwinds will push the currency meaningfully lower this year. 22nd March 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2024) GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here... 22nd March 2024 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Some global market implications of BoJ tightening Japan’s exit from negative interest rates could place some upward pressure on bond term premia elsewhere, but we don’t think it will prove too disruptive to markets even if the BoJ ultimately hikes a... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The doves have it – what next for markets? This week’s flurry of central bank meeting points to growing confidence among policymakers in most major economies that inflation is on track back to target. That supports our view that long-term... 21st March 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Three key points on the yen’s latest fall In the wake of this week’s FOMC and BoJ policy announcements we are revising our forecast for the Japanese yen. While we still expect the Japanese yen to rebound over the course of 2024, we now... 21st March 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update A further rise in the US dollar looks unlikely to us The tailwinds that have underpinned the rebound in the dollar this year seem, to us, to have run their course. While we wouldn’t be surprised if the dollar stayed firm over the coming months, we still... 21st March 2024 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (March 2024) The valuations of “risky” assets have kept rising so far this year, even as “safe” asset yields have rebounded. While risky asset valuations are quite high by past standards, we doubt this will... 21st March 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How the Fed might – or might not – affect the markets Our view that Treasury yields will fall back a bit and that the US dollar will generally weaken by the end of the year rests on the assumption that the Fed will deliver more rate cuts than currently... 20th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Markets Outlook – What to expect from equities, bonds and FX markets 1713362400 Our markets team recently held an online briefing all about how we expect global equities, bonds, and currencies to perform through the end of this year and into 2025.
Global Markets Update Credit spreads during equity bubbles: how low, how long? Credit spreads aren’t bound to fall further if a bubble continues to inflate in the stock market, judging by what happened in the US in the second half of the 1990s. 19th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will the equity risk premium disappear? Given our view that a stock market bubble will inflate in the US, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the equity risk premium (ERP) shrinking further in the near term. This might even go as far as the... 18th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: After the big vote – India’s macro and markets outlook 1712822400 In a big year for elections, this is the biggest.
