China Economics Weekly Date set for fiscal reveal, stock frenzy boosting GDP The details of a widely anticipated fiscal stimulus package are expected to be revealed at the NPC Standing Committee’s next meeting, which has just been scheduled for 4th to 8th November. This... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily How big of a threat is Trump to Asian currencies? We suspect Asian currencies would underperform under a Trump presidency, even if they don’t seem to have been affected worse than others by the apparent rise in his chances of winning lately. 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Outlook for euro-zone equities brighter than for economy We think a pick-up in global growth and the further inflation of a US equity bubble mean prospects for euro-zone equities are generally promising, despite sluggish economic growth in the region. 24th October 2024 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (October 2024) The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy has entered a softer patch. Coupled with the RBI's change in policy stance in its October meeting, this suggests that... 24th October 2024 · 1 min read
Event Global Drop-In: Is inflation still a threat? 31st October 2024, 3:00PM GMT Renewed jitters in bond markets in part reflect a nagging sense that inflation isn’t whipped.
Capital Daily Yen may rebound and weigh on Japanese equities We expect the Japanese yen to bounce back before long, putting more pressure on the Japanese stock market, at least in local currency terms. 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yen could weigh further on the TOPIX We argued last year that the relative strength of Japan’s stock market mostly reflected the weak yen rather than a fundamental transformation of its corporate sector. Developments since then suggest... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the Treasury sell-off The recent sell-off in long-dated Treasuries and the accompanying ‘bear steepening’ of the curve make sense given recent developments. We continue to think that the former will unwind before too long... 22nd October 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for the renminbi The depreciation pressure on the renminbi has abated over recent months and the USD/CNY rate is currently trading around our end-2024 target of 7.10. But with US interest rate expectations on the rise... 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is Brazil’s economy overheating? Concerns that Brazil’s economy is overheating are justified – to an extent. But the economy looks very different now compared with the last bout of overheating in the early 2010s. As a result, while... 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the relative prospects for EM equities The recent outperformance of emerging market equities, relative to their developed market peers, has almost entirely reversed in October and we think this may be a sign of things to come. 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The election and the dollar The US dollar has made further gains this week as US data continue to come in strong, contrasting favourably with the ECB’s surprisingly dovish policy announcement and softer inflation data in other... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets starting to price in a Trump win? With the US election drawing closer and former president Trump’s perceived chances of winning on the rise, financial markets may be starting to shift towards discounting a Trump win. But, in our view... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Corporate credit spreads may stay tight a long while yet Although corporate credit spreads in the US and the UK have nearly reached multi-decade lows, we think they will remain near those levels over the next year or so. And we don’t see spreads in the euro... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Equities Focus Dim outlook for energy equities This Focus assesses the outlook for US energy equities, which have come into the spotlight of late amid swings in oil prices. In short, we expect the sector to underperform its peers over the coming... 18th October 2024 · 12 mins read
