Capital Daily What’s next for Chinese financial markets? While we expect Chinese bonds and equities to make more gains in the near term, we think the outlook further ahead is not as bright for the latter. 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike in May, no rate cuts until 2025 We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, in contrast to the consensus view that the Bank will remain on hold. Given the RBA’s ostensible resolve to... 30th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest swings in the yen Japan’s apparent intervention in support of the beleaguered yen may buy some time for the currency to stabilise, but is unlikely to lead to sustained turnaround until US interest rate expectations... 29th April 2024 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other developed markets (DM) central banks will be able to ease... 29th April 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update It would take a lot more dollar strength to “break the economy” The US dollar would have to appreciate a lot further before having significant effects on the global economy and financial system. A key risk to watch for is the widening policy divergence between the... 25th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Are Fed hikes coming? Hikes are back on the agenda at some central banks and core PCE data for Q1 added to the hawkish mood in US markets. But we don’t think the Fed will feel the need to start hiking again. Indeed, given... 25th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily USD strength may delay, not derail, EM easing cycles Even if the US dollar stays strong against most currencies this year, we think that much of the broad-based weakness in EM (emerging market) FX has run its course. While some EM central banks may now... 24th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook Life after the bubble The latest edition of our Long-Run Asset Allocation Outlook sets out what we think lies in store for equities, bonds, REITs, and commodities over the next 10 years and beyond. This includes relatively... 24th April 2024 · 21 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. (Please ignore the previous email which linked to the February Chart Pack) The latest activity data... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily European corporate bond yields could fall further We expect corporate bond yields in the UK and euro-zone to fall as rate cuts in those economies push down risk-free rates and strong risk sentiment narrows spreads further. 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Stock markets fall back: consolidation or worse? Stock markets are having a tough start to the quarter, but we think that they will rebound, notably in the US, thanks to renewed enthusiasm about artificial intelligence. 22nd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Geopolitics might not thwart a recovery in bank shares All nine constituents of the S&P 500 diversified banks index have now released their earnings reports for Q1. While the performance of their shares has typically been underwhelming of late, in some... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is the future brighter for US banks? Higher Treasury yields, a resilient US economy, and relatively low valuations are three reasons why we now think that the future for US banks in general is a bit brighter. 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Yield curve phoney war redux; how different is this time? Despite the ongoing surge in long-term government bond yields, the US yield curve remains inverted. As such, it is worth revisiting what the implications are for financial markets, and how this... 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk premia on Turkish assets may stay low The risk premia on Turkish assets are now low relative to the past decade or so. We think that will remain the case over the coming quarters, given the positive global risk-on attitude and the ongoing... 18th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update What different timings for rate cuts mean for DM bond yields We forecast that bond yields will fall back in most developed markets (DMs) over the next year or so, as central banks generally embark on bigger easing cycles than investors currently expect. But... 18th April 2024 · 5 mins read
