Event Drop-In: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effects 9th April 2025, 2:30PM BST China’s additional retaliatory tariff of 50% on US imports marks another worrying escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. In this special online briefing, our senior...
Commodities Update Gold, equity bear markets, and recessions While gold prices have edged down since “Liberation Day”, this is not unusual during a sudden equity market selloff. In fact, gold’s track record suggests that prices are likely to rise from here... 9th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 8th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the sudden sell-off in bonds We think the turnaround in longer-dated Treasury yields has bit further to run, if – and it’s a big if – the worst is now over for the US stock market. 8th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: What Trump’s tariffs mean for Asian economies and markets 10th April 2025, 8:00AM BST The escalation of tariffs by the US and China now threatens to rupture the flow of trade between the world’s two largest economies.
Event Drop-In: European growth risks rise – How will the ECB respond? 17th April 2025, 3:30PM BST The ECB’s April meeting comes amid falling inflation – but also rising global risks, not least the potential growth shock from Trump’s aggressive tariffs.
Event Drop-In: Australia’s election, RBA easing and the economic outlook 30th April 2025, 4:00AM BST Australia’s 3rd May general election will take place against a backdrop of further Reserve Bank easing and an economy showing signs of having turned a corner.
Capital Daily Trump’s medicine leaves a bitter taste for equities The carnage in global equity markets has continued after President Trump doubled down on his tariff plans, noting that “sometimes you have to take a medicine to fix something”. We still think he will... 7th April 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Sorting through the post-liberation mess in currencies President Trump’s extraordinary “Liberation Day” announcement has prompted a major risk-off event across financial markets, sending safe-haven currencies soaring and commodity currencies crashing. It... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the market fall-out It’s not often that the US Employment Report is a sideshow. But that’s been the case today, as the ongoing fall-out from Donald Trump’s swingeing “reciprocal” tariffs and China’s strong response to... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China reciprocates, renminbi weakens, Shein on top The offshore renminbi ends the week roughly where it was relative to the dollar when Donald Trump started speaking in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. Fortunately for exporters, the currency has still... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariff shock heightens risks The larger-than-expected tariff imposed by US President Trump on the EU means the hit to the euro-zone economy will be larger than we had anticipated. For now, a euro-zone recession is still not our... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – China retaliates and the market’s response 4th April 2025, 2:30PM BST With news of China’s retaliation to Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs deepening market misery, senior economists from our Global, China, Europe and Markets teams hosted this s
Equities Update Tariffs and our downgraded forecast for the S&P 500 We are significantly downgrading our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500 for two key reasons. The first is yesterday’s announcement of greater tariffs on US imports than we had assumed. In such... 3rd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Two surprises in the market reaction to “Liberation Day” Markets were roiled after Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs that were clearly bigger than many (including us) had expected. We think there are a couple of interesting facts in the market... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: keep an eye on FX reserves Quick action by the Turkish central bank appears to have stemmed pressure in Turkey’s financial markets after the recent sell-off. But the rapid depletion of FX reserves means that policymakers have... 2nd April 2025 · 4 mins read
