Capital Daily Tough times for Japanese equities may not last We expect Japanese equities to do quite well this year, as hype around artificial intelligence proves a more powerful catalyst than the headwind we anticipate from a stronger yen. 8th April 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls report points to continued near-term dollar resilience Another robust US non-farm payrolls report has seen the dollar rebound a bit, unwinding some of its losses earlier in the week and putting the DXY index on track to end the week near its highest level... 5th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Further upside in US yields & dollar looks limited to us Continued strength in the US labour market may keep US Treasury yields elevated and the greenback strong in the short term, but we think the upside for both is limited from here. And the backdrop for... 5th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation in an equity bubble We expect equities to outperform most other assets as an AI-fuelled bubble continues to inflate, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles. In particular, we... 4th April 2024 · 29 mins read
Capital Daily One boat the rising tide of optimism is failing to lift While a rising tide of optimism has lifted most boats in the US stock market so far this year, real estate is the notable exception. That may change if, as we anticipate, the 10-year Treasury yield... 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Outlook US dollar still likely to weaken later in 2024 The US dollar has started the year on the front foot as US growth and inflation again surprised to the upside, prompting the Fed to (again) take a more hawkish stance than other major central banks... 4th April 2024 · 24 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Mar. 24) China’s economy continued to recover in the first months of the new year. And we think fiscal support will keep supporting growth in the near-term. That said, the property sector remains a drag on the... 3rd April 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is the India/China equity market narrative shifting? We think China’s equities could fare better than those in India in the near term. Note: We will be discussing the outlook for Chinese equities in a special 20-minute online briefing on Thursday 4th... 3rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent easing in price pressures and the Bank of England's new-found dovish slant has convinced investors that interest rates will be cut a bit further over the next two years. But we still think... 3rd April 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will rising Treasury yields keep equities down? The sharp rise in Treasury yields this week has probably contributed to the sell-off in US equities, but it isn’t the only factor. And even if Treasury yields remain high, we doubt that would prevent... 2nd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Q2 could be a good one for equities and bonds Equities have enjoyed another strong quarter and, while a lot of good news is priced in, we think they can extend their winning streak. Sovereign bonds have, by contrast, struggled over Q1; but we... 28th March 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currencies calm ahead of next round of key US data The US dollar has eked out small gains against some major currencies so far this week, leaving the DXY index just below 105 at the time of writing. During an otherwise quiet week, the February PCE... 28th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see little room for credit spreads to fall further We think the bulk of the fall in corporate credit spreads is now in the rearview mirror, especially in the US. 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update How worried should we be about the renminbi & yen? We continue to think that policymakers in China and Japan will do enough to keep their currencies from weakening much further, but the risk of a break lower in one, or both, is increasing. 27th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone sovereign spreads may have limited scope to fall We expect the spreads between the yield of the 10-year German bund and its ‘riskier’ counterparts in other euro-zone economies to narrow only a little further this year. If anything, we think that the... 27th March 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Loonie to weaken further over the course of the year We still expect the Canadian dollar to depreciate against the US dollar as interest rate differentials relative to the US widen and Canada’s terms of trade worsen. 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
