Event

EM Drop-In: What currency sell-offs mean for emerging markets

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The first Fed rate cut of this cycle is now looking like a second-half event and EM investors – and policymakers – are having to adjust to the delay.

Capital Daily

Gilt yields may fall by more than Treasury yields

Today’s UK CPI release has not made a sustained impact on investors’ expectations over the path of Bank Rate, and the market pricing implies that investors are still discounting fewer cuts from the...

17th April 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Update

Reassessing our forecast for the US dollar

Continued resilience in the US economy looks set to delay the Fed easing cycle until (at least) the second half of this year, so we now think the greenback will stay strong against most currencies...

16th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

The correlation between bond yields and equities

The correlation between changes in bond yields and in equities has rarely been so negative, and we suspect this will continue as yields fall back and equities rebound.

16th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Oil prices and the stock market

Many of the usual relationships between oil prices and equities haven’t held over recent months. This Update explores the reason for that, and what may lie in store for energy equities and the broader...

16th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Fed – not the Middle East – still the bigger worry for markets

Financial markets have, so far, taken the latest escalation in the Middle East over the weekend largely in stride. Our sense remains that, absent an even larger conflagration that disrupts energy...

15th April 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar soars on CPI bombshell; more to come?

The US dollar has surged in the wake of another too-hot US CPI print, a dovish ECB and disappointing credit data out of China. The DXY index is now approaching its peak of last autumn (~106 currently...

12th April 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Fall in EM yields may be delayed but is still on the cards

Inflationary pressures both domestically and in the US may keep government bond yields in emerging markets high for a while yet. But we think they will eventually fall later in the year.

12th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Higher yields might not stop value underperforming growth

We think ‘value’ stocks will generally underperform their ‘growth’ counterparts while a bubble in the US stock market continues to inflate, even if Treasury yields don’t drop back in the way that we...

12th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

The causes, consequences, and future of the Treasury sell-off

We don’t expect the tough times to last for Treasuries. But although their woes so far have coincided with big gains in the stock market (at least until very recently) we don’t think a recovery in...

12th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Markets Update

Taking stock of inflation risk premia

Despite yet another hotter-than-expected US CPI release, there are few signs in bond markets that long-term inflation expectations are de-anchoring. That supports our base case that US Treasury yields...

11th April 2024 · 4 mins read

FX Markets Update

Assessing the scope for further euro weakness

The euro has fallen sharply against the greenback this week, and we wouldn’t be surprised if it weakens a bit further in the short term. That said, we think a fall below parity in the EUR/USD rate is...

11th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The minutes of their most recent meetings revealed that the RBA and the RBNZ...

11th April 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

How big a threat is inflation to US equities?

Today’s slump in S&P 500, following the release of a hotter-than-expected US CPI report for March, underscores the US stock market’s vulnerability to disappointing news on inflation. (See Chart 1.)...

10th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Chinese gold craze likely to unwind later this year

We think the price of gold will have eased back from current record highs by end-2024, but falling US Treasury yields and some softness in the US dollar will keep the price elevated.

9th April 2024 · 4 mins read