Capital Daily We think most DM yields will stay put through 2025 Falling inflation across developed markets (DM) supports our view that policy rates will generally settle at their neutral levels, close to current market pricing in most DMs. That’s why we expect... 16th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the tech rebound has further to run Notwithstanding some weakness today, enthusiasm for tech stocks has returned in recent weeks. We think this enthusiasm will drive the US stock market higher, despite the optimism that is already... 15th October 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Modi resisting populist shift Contrary to many expectations in the aftermath of the BJP’s humbling in the general election, there is little evidence so far of Prime Minister Modi’s party shifting to more populist policymaking. And... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Another turning point for China’s stock market? China’s authorities are clearly making an effort to boost the country’s stock market, despite some seeming missteps. But we doubt any further gains will survive very long into next year. 14th October 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar stays on the front foot amid mounting uncertainty Another week of upside surprises to US data and hawkish noises from some FOMC members have helped the US dollar build on last week’s rebound. With money markets now shifting towards discounting a... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the Budget will prevent Gilts from rallying We think that the larger rise in yields in the UK than elsewhere over the past month is due to expectations that the Budget will boost demand rather than fiscal fears. That said, there is some upside... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Budget jitters The recent falls in business and consumer confidence are undoubtedly due to the prospect of higher taxes in the Budget on 30th October. And the probable boost to demand from more public investment... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s 2025 budget; two-way risk for energy prices Having survived a vote of no confidence earlier in the week, France’s government presented its 2025 budget on Thursday, which highlighted the perilous state of the public finances. Meanwhile, energy... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea cuts, Bank Indonesia on a knife edge The Bank of Korea cut interest rates today and we are expecting the central banks of Thailand and the Philippines to follow suit at their scheduled meetings on Wednesday. The Monetary Authority of... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI shifts stance, FTSE Russell, state election results The shift in the RBI's official policy stance, alongside the announcement of India's inclusion in the FTSE Russell EM bond index and state election results that should ease fiscal risks, has... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rising geopolitical tensions could prick the AI bubble A further decoupling of trade ties between the US and China or a sharp rise in Cross-Strait tensions, even if a full-blown conflict is avoided, are two big geopolitical events that we think present a... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily CPI upside surprise may not lead to higher UST yields The initial market reaction to today’s release of US inflation for September and jobless claims data suggests to us that investors may be more concerned about the latter than about the former. We... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Assessing the risks to Treasuries The bond market sell-off over recent weeks has taken the 10-year Treasury yield to around our long-held end-2024 forecast of 4.00%. Although significant economic, political, and geopolitical risks... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Global Markets Valuations Monitor (October 2024) The valuations of “risky” assets continued to rise in the third quarter, both in absolute terms and relative to “safe” asset yields. We think that reflects the start of the Fed’s easing cycle and... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Three key points on antitrust & the US stock market Market participants have largely shrugged off the news that the US Department of Justice (DoJ) may seek a court-ordered break up of Google. Given the snail’s pace at which the US antitrust process... 9th October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a... 9th October 2024 · 1 min read
