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It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
25th March 2025
Following President Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude, the upside risks to oil prices from his foreign policy are crystallising. That said, OPEC+’s spare capacity and apparent willingness to raise output blunt some of the …
Overview – While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial metals are well below consensus. Gold is a …
24th March 2025
Gold smashes through $3k In what feels a lot like déjà vu at this point, gold set yet another record high this week, this time as it smashed through the $3,000 per ounce mark. The financial press have linked the latest leg up in the price over the last …
21st March 2025
The Trump administration’s efforts to end to the war in Ukraine have raised the prospect of sanctions relief for Russia. This Focus outlines the main sanctions in place and the macroeconomic impact lifting them could have. While US sanctions relief …
20th March 2025
On the face of it, the US administration’s focus on lower oil prices, even at the cost of industry “disruption,” bodes ill for US oil production. That said, our forecast for WTI to fall to $56pb by end-2026 is consistent with output flatlining rather than …
17th March 2025
Tariffs drive divergence in metals price outlook The price premium for industrial metals in the US surged in anticipation of the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, which were implemented this week. For example, the Midwest premium for aluminum has jumped …
14th March 2025
For all the focus on a possible ‘Trumpcession’ and the related risks to US oil demand, it is worth noting that oil demand growth is already anaemic and our view on the US economy is consistent with demand stagnating or contracting slightly in 2025. While …
13th March 2025
Discipline difficulties meet demand delusion While we learned this week that OPEC+ is sticking to its plan to gradually raise oil output from April (see here ), question marks over production discipline within the group and the strength of global oil …
7th March 2025
Weak global demand a risk to OPEC+ plans The recent confirmation from OPEC+ that it intends to go ahead with the plans to gradually increase oil production from April has coincided with ongoing signs of weakness in global oil demand. Although OPEC+ has …
6th March 2025
Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go far enough to address the structural headwinds facing …
5th March 2025
Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are the go-to resources to keep up with the impact of …
4th March 2025
OPEC+’s plan to increase oil output by 2.2m barrels per day over the next 18 months or so risks saturating the global market and highlights the downside risks to our already below-consensus oil price forecasts. Despite ongoing tensions within OPEC+ about …
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
Metals, minerals, and oil are in Trump’s sights There were three key commodity-related developments from the White House this week. First, the US and Ukraine have agreed to jointly develop Ukraine’s energy and mineral reserves. We wrote about the key …
28th February 2025
This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for Ukraine under Trump is likely to come with strings …
26th February 2025
Commodities are trading in a hyperkinetic news cycle, with Donald Trump raising tariffs on US allies, China calibrating a response to ever-harsher punitive trade actions and the US and Russia re-engaging over Ukraine. And that’s even before the latest …
While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels. From an energy price perspective, the looming ramp-up …
24th February 2025
OPEC+ confusion highlights risks of another delay Another week, another chapter in the book of the ongoing drama around when and whether OPEC+ will start to unwind its voluntary output cuts. Reports early this week suggested that the group was considering …
21st February 2025
Whilst COMEX benchmark copper prices will be heavily influenced by President Trump’s plans for tariffs in the near term, the bigger picture is that weak demand growth and robust refined copper supply will weigh on global benchmark prices over the next few …
20th February 2025
The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the macroeconomic implications will depend on the features of …
18th February 2025
Trump-Putin call could ease upside risks for energy President Trump was at the centre of another whirlwind week in commodity markets, with his “lengthy and highly productive” phone call with President Putin giving energy traders in particular plenty to …
14th February 2025
Keeping track of “cost and chaos” in metals markets …
12th February 2025
Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley has poetically described the impacts in metals markets so far of President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium as “a lot of cost and chaos”. Our new Metals Tariff Impact Tracker gives you a ringside view of …
China added five critical minerals to its export control list last week but stopped short of banning their sale. The move was intended as a warning to the Trump administration and to increase China’s leverage during future negotiations. If the US …
The direct impact on the global economy of President Trump’s latest proposed tariffs would be small since steel and aluminium account for a very small share of world trade. Canada’s economy is relatively exposed and it is likely that US steel prices would …
10th February 2025
Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs thrown its way. Although Canada and Mexico have been granted …
Note: Join us as we discuss how Donald Trump's moves to build out his policy agenda will affect energy, soft commodities, and metals markets in a Drop-in on Thursday 13th February 15:00 GMT/10:00 EST . Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. …
7th February 2025
A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly, with the supply backdrop likely to remain constrained for …
6th February 2025
The renewable rollout in Saudi Arabia is set to accelerate on the back of cheap solar panel imports from China. Given that Saudi Arabia is one of a few countries that directly burns crude oil for electricity, this could add further downward pressure on …
5th February 2025
Against the backdrop of potential US tariffs, our new Oil Tariff Impact Tracker is a vital resource for tracking potential near-term changes in North American oil production, trade flows, and prices. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying …
Tracking the knock-on effects of US tariffs on oil …
4th February 2025
Metals flows adjust to tariffs & sanctions Industrial metals prices have been buffeted by news of potential trade disruptions this week, as fears of tariffs and sanctions loom large. President Trump has pledged to place additional tariffs on aluminium, …
31st January 2025
Although European natural gas prices will still influence EU carbon prices in the near-term, investors’ recent optimism suggests that expectations for a tighter carbon market down the line are starting to drive a wedge between carbon and gas prices. The …
28th January 2025
Iron ore prices have been supported by optimism that policy stimulus may prevent a marked downturn in China’s construction sector. But we think that any stimulus-led boost will prove temporary and iron ore demand will weaken. Given that new low-cost …
27th January 2025
Traditionally, our bearish view on industrial metals, informed by China’s struggling property sector , would lead us to expect weakness in silver demand and prices. But given the growing use of silver in fast-growing and non-cyclical sectors, as well as …
Week 1/208: A national emergency and Davos President Trump hit the ground running by declaring a National Energy Emergency on his first day in office. We covered the implications of this for energy markets in this in-depth report here . One of the key …
24th January 2025
The news from Davos that President Trump will “ask Saudi Arabia and Opec to bring down the cost of oil” is certainly in keeping with his desire for lower gasoline prices and his clear intention to use energy as leverage over Russia to end the war in …
23rd January 2025
The declaration of a National Energy Emergency underlines President Trump’s aspiration to extend the US’s dominance in global energy markets, and his willingness to use the US’s clout as leverage will reshape global energy flows during his term. That …
US sanctions on Russian energy cause a stir Oil prices had a strong start to the week following the news of further US sanctions against Russia's oil sector. We outlined our thoughts here but in short, the disruption from these sanctions could take time …
17th January 2025
The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This fall was in part …
The recent ramp-up in US sanctions on Russia’s oil supply chain has tightened the global oil market and may keep prices higher in the near term. But we still expect greater OPEC+ supply and weak demand growth to drive prices lower towards $70pb by the end …
14th January 2025
We doubt that US oil & gas firms’ optimism following Donald Trump’s election victory will translate into stronger growth in output as recent productivity gains falter and oil prices fall later this year. The latest Dallas Fed Energy survey showed that oil …
Oil market rally on shaky foundations The recent rise in oil prices has dominated proceedings so far this year; at the time of writing, Brent crude is currently at $79.8pb – up more than 3.5% on the day and more than 11% higher than its December low. For …
10th January 2025
While upside risks to energy prices have garnered plenty of attention in recent months, there are several downside risks that are worth noting. Although we would characterise the downside risks – Saudi Arabia performing a major pivot in oil policy and …
9th January 2025
Commodities Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) …
8th January 2025
The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to the early-2010s was instead an era of globalisation: most …
7th January 2025
Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its traditional allies could each reshape supply chains and …
The termination of European imports of pipeline natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will only increase the EU’s dependence on imports of LNG and ensure that energy prices there remain much higher than in the US. The latest rise in EU natural gas prices …
2nd January 2025
Trump’s strange threat President-elect Trump’s warning to the EU to “…make up [its] tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!” will not cause sleepless nights in …
20th December 2024
