Filtered by Topic: Geoeconomics Use setting Geoeconomics
The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to pressure on its already strained public finances, and would …
29th July 2024
Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might happen to sanctions on Russia, and the possible …
23rd July 2024
Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November. What are the implications for economies and markets if he wins in November and makes good on his pledge to bring the two-and-a-half year old conflict to a …
19th July 2024
Trump sets out his stall for warmer Saudi ties Donald Trump has outlined his intentions to improve relations with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election. But potential tensions over the handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict mean that, for now, Saudi officials …
18th July 2024
Full Budget a key test for new government The Finance Ministry confirmed this week that the full Union Budget for FY24/25 will be unveiled on Tuesday, 23 rd July (recall that during election years, an “interim” Budget is held in February). We’ll be …
12th July 2024
Final preparations are reportedly in place for Prime Minister Modi to travel to Moscow early next week to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. This will be Modi’s first trip to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, though the two leaders did meet …
5th July 2024
A facelift for Egypt’s cabinet, but no shift in policy Egypt’s cabinet was shaken up this week but the new faces are highly unlikely to diverge from the economic policy path their predecessors were on, particularly when it comes to the public finances. …
4th July 2024
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not result in much of a deviation in economic policymaking. …
1st July 2024
This page brings together our analysis of how Donald Trump's return to the White House will affect the outlook for emerging economies. Use the Table of Contents on the right to navigate. All of our analysis on the election, including the implications for …
28th June 2024
A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again . But while he could deal another blow to the …
25th June 2024
Lebanon on verge of being drawn into the war Skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces have intensified, culminating in Israel’s approval of an “offensive” into Lebanon this week. Not only does this threaten to exacerbate Lebanon’s prolonged …
20th June 2024
Still a bright future in Europe China protested the European Commission’s (EC) imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made EVs this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a good outcome. The European tariffs, …
14th June 2024
An interactive guide to the future of global macro and markets leadership. This content was last updated on 10th June 2024. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right …
Will the US continue to dominate the global economy in the coming years? Will China or Europe ever catch up? Is the US where investors will continue to see stronger stock market returns? The question of US outperformance runs to the heart of the global …
7th June 2024
In the coming years, we expect Europe to raise barriers to trade and investment with China but to do so in a targeted and gradual manner. If so, there would be big implications for some sectors, including electric vehicles and renewable technologies, but …
Container shipping costs have rebounded in the past month amid a pick-up in demand for goods from China and a possible front-loading of festive orders due to concerns about future shipping disruptions. And shipping costs could yet rise further. Our …
6th June 2024
The global economy has been marked by the outperformance of the US economy and its financial markets. But past performance is no guarantee of future results. Will the structural, financial and political forces which have driven the success of the US …
4th June 2024
South Africa's pivotal election looms There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will ally with. The ANC’s vote …
24th May 2024
US pulling Saudi back from China’s orbit US officials this week suggested that a mooted grand deal with Saudi Arabia could be signed off in the coming weeks. This would redraw how the Kingdom aligns itself in a fracturing global economy. Jake Sullivan, …
23rd May 2024
The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power within Iran means that there is unlikely to be a major …
20th May 2024
The next German federal election will be crucial in determining how Germany will respond to its structural economic challenges. This Update answers some key questions on what to expect from the election and its implications for economic policy and …
In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing addresses the White House announcement of higher tariffs on Chinese goods and what that signals about the direction of the global economic system. He …
17th May 2024
Non-aligned policy to be tested in US-China divide This week we took a deep-dive into a topic that regularly comes up in our conversations with clients: how India positions itself in a fragmenting global economy. (See here .) Our analysis makes the point …
India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential universal tariff on all US imports under a second Trump …
16th May 2024
Overseas loans by Chinese banks peaked in late 2021 and have since been curtailed in response to increased debt problems among EM borrowers. While these strains are partly a consequence of global shocks, they have also underscored some flaws with China’s …
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
15th May 2024
The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a bigger impact on imports of Chinese-made batteries, …
14th May 2024
After weeks of rising tensions around the question of Chinese industrial overcapacity, the Biden administration has announced a new raft of tariffs on goods from China. But what will these latest actions mean for the US and Chinese economies? Will Europe …
The US government’s reported plans to raise barriers on Chinese imports of green tech – including a potentially sharp rise in electric vehicle tariffs – could trigger a further ratcheting up of bilateral tensions around the issue of industrial …
13th May 2024
What’s missing from the China overcapacity row, that UK GDP data and an exclusive inflation briefing …
10th May 2024
Trump’s return could benefit India With Donald Trump’s protectionist approach to trade on full display in an interview with the Time magazine this week, what might the implications of a second Trump presidency be for India? India is not as dependent on US …
3rd May 2024
Is Saudi Arabia moving away from China’s orbit? Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are close to a new security pact would, if confirmed, cause us to re-evaluate our view of the Kingdom’s alignment in a fracturing global economy. Prior to the start of …
2nd May 2024
All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal US import tariff or a dollar devaluation, and those …
29th April 2024
A second Trump presidency would almost certainly lead to a protectionist lurch from the US, with profound implications for the emerging world. But which EMs would see the biggest hit to export demand? What would a more isolationist shift signal about the …
US aid package a (large) sticking plaster for Ukraine The $61bn US aid package for Ukraine approved this week will provide a much needed boost to Ukraine’s efforts on the battlefield, but the delays that the funding has faced over recent months casts a …
26th April 2024
The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has largely been shrugged off by the oil market and risk premia in the Gulf remain low. Even so, growth will remain weak in the Gulf this year. There will be bigger macro consequences from …
24th April 2024
Geopolitical risk may be ever-present in global commodity markets, but it’s arguably been an even bigger driver over the past year or so. With little sign of an end to conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, how should investors be gauging the influence …
23rd April 2024
Tensions increase, but hopes for de-escalation Tensions between Israel and Iran ratcheted up this week as both sides launched military strikes at one another, raising concern about a broader regional conflict. (Read our research here .) Following Iran’s …
19th April 2024
Note: We’ll be discussing the outlook for monetary policy in the euro-zone in a Drop-In on Thursday, 25th April. Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. The financial news this week has been dominated by the potential impact of the Middle …
BJP on course for another big win The biggest (and most expensive) vote in history commenced today as India started voting in its general election. Almost a billion people are eligible so given the daunting logistical challenge, voting will take place …
Reports suggest that Israel has fired missiles into Iran in response to Iran’s strike on Israel last weekend. Details remain unclear, but the key questions for markets relate to the scale of the attack and the damage caused, and the likelihood of …
Gulf find itself in a bind if conflict escalates The ratcheting up of tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel over the past couple of weeks has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, though, it seems unlikely that the Gulf …
18th April 2024
It wasn’t so long ago that markets would barely take note of a major summit or meeting between political leaders. These days, bilateral get-togethers are followed by a scouring of accompanying communiques for signs of shifting geo-political allegiances …
16th April 2024
The Iranian strike over the weekend has been largely shrugged off by Israel’s financial markets and on its own is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. The key uncertainty now is how Israel responds. An aggressive Israeli military response that …
15th April 2024
There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving Iran disrupts oil production in the Gulf states is much …
Janet Yellen lent official voice to resurgent global worries about the threat of Chinese overcapacity when she pointedly criticised Beijing’s overinvestment and underpowered consumption during her trip there earlier this month. But are the US Treasury …
13th April 2024
The threat of an outright conflict between Iran and Israel is at its highest point since the war in Gaza began. A full-blown war would not only have major repercussions for Iran’s own economy, but the spillovers into oil markets could have a significant …
4th April 2024
CEO visits underscore China’s continued appeal President Xi held a rare, highly-publicised meeting in Beijing with a visiting US business delegation this week. The optimistic take is that, facing economic weakness and collapsing FDI, China’s leadership is …
28th March 2024
The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter, Mexico would be one of the most affected EMs. And even …
12th March 2024
Neil Shearing has been in the Middle East and Asia, talking to clients about the macro outlook. In meetings from Dubai to Singapore to Hong Kong, some questions kept coming up again and again and, in this week’s episode, he goes through them with David …
1st March 2024
