Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah

The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to our near-term GDP growth forecasts, we think that policymakers and investors are underappreciating the fiscal risks that are building. Elsewhere, the missile exchange between Israel and Hezbollah last Sunday seems to have been calibrated to avoid a further escalation in hostilities, but the threat of a wider conflict is likely to remain high for as long as the war in Gaza continues.