In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing addresses the White House announcement of higher tariffs on Chinese goods and what that signals about the direction of the global economic system. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and explains what to expect from the coming week’s UK CPI release.
Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is also on the show, talking to David Wilder about this month’s recovery in US equities, our no longer out-of-consensus 2024 and 2025 forecasts and what to look for before the market bubble finally bursts.
And there’s more on those China tariffs, with an exclusive clip from our client briefing about how Europe could respond to Chinese EV imports and whether higher US tariffs will lead to a further reordering of global trade flows.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode:
UK Drop-In: April CPI and the Bank of England’s path to rate cuts
We think the Bank of England will decide to start cutting rates at its next meeting, but there’s a series of crucial data releases between now and that policy decision on 20th June – not least the...
Inflation may soon be too low
We discussed the outlook for UK inflation and interest rates in an online briefing just after the release of April's CPI data. Watch that briefing here. Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall from
US tariffs tighten the ratchet again
The tariffs announced today on US imports from China won’t cause much direct economic damage since trade in the affected goods is already low. But US economic sanctions on China seem to act like a
Drop-In: US and Europe to raise China tariffs – A new phase in global fracturing?
After weeks of rising tensions around the question of Chinese industrial overcapacity, the Biden administration has announced a new raft of tariffs on goods from China. But what will these latest...
US-China tariffs raise stakes for EU
The US decision to hike tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100% and to also raise tariffs on EV batteries, semiconductors and solar panels, raises the question how Europe will respond. Europe is in a
S&P 500 poised to soar in 2024: Capital Economics
John Higgins, Chief Markets Economist
Australian Financial Review
What to make of renewed interest in ‘meme’ stocks
Even if interest in ‘meme’ stocks rebounds following a renewed surge in GameStop’s share price, some of the telltale signs that a bubble in the broader stock market may be entering its final stages –