Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The latest on the protests in Iran The US appears to have backed away from military intervention to support protestors in Iran, helping oil prices to fall today. But the situation remains extremely fragile. Any near-term disruption to... 15th January 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s AI rollout could rival the US One year on from DeepSeek’s breakthrough, Chinese AI is still hot on the heels of US tech. Despite hardware constraints, China looks set to remain close to the frontier of AI development. And China... 14th January 2026 · 31 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2026 Donald Trump’s tariff policies and his aggressive foreign policy approach are straining relationships with traditional US allies. One consequence that is apparent in our Global Fracturing Dashboard is... 12th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines budget, Vietnam booming, geopolitical shifts The Philippines’ 2026 fiscal budget, recently approved by President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr., points to a sharp fall in infrastructure spending as the corruption scandal continues to weigh on the economy... 9th January 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update A shift in India’s geopolitical alignment In our update of our Global Fracturing map for 2026, we now classify India as unaligned, rather than leaning towards the US, following the cooling of the relationship with the Trump administration... 7th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi back in the US camp, for now Improved relations between Saudi Arabia and the US since President Trump returned to office, as well as recent agreements in the areas of AI-related technologies and defence, mean that we are shifting... 6th January 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily First thoughts on the market implications of Maduro’s capture While the capture of Venezuelan president Maduro by American forces has dominated headlines, financial markets seem unperturbed. We agree with the implicit view that the near-term economic and... 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Trump eases the hardware bottlenecks on Chinese AI China’s leadership has spurned Nvidia’s knee-capped H20 chips. But it may be willing to let its firms buy the more powerful H200 chips that President Trump is now offering. This would allow China to... 9th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia & China: a “no limits” partnership with limits Russia and China declared a “no limits” partnership in 2022, but the economic limits to the relationship have become increasingly clear. Chinese FDI in Russia remains low, bilateral trade is... 25th November 2025 · 19 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MbS’s Washington trip tips the balance in US’s favour Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to the US this week secured security, nuclear, mineral, and AI deals which will pull the Kingdom back from China’s sphere of influence towards the US. 20th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela-US tensions, Brazil’s rare earths, Chile votes A military engagement between the US and Venezuela might push oil prices higher (although we suspect the move would be limited), lead to renewed migration outflows and harden pro- or anti-US stances... 14th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Shifting geopolitical allegiances, IMF to visit Egypt The meeting between Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Trump next week is widely expected to see the announcement of a new security deal and the US’s partnership in the... 13th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher defence spending in EMs: the macro impact Defence spending across much of Asia, Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East is set to rise in the coming years, driven by heightened regional tensions and US pressure on allies to take... 11th November 2025 · 13 mins read
