Chief Economist's Note Supply-side shocks take centre stage in a fragmenting world The Iran conflict is more than just another shock to the global economy; it’s a reminder that the long-neglected supply side is becoming an increasingly potent source of macroeconomic instability... 24th March 2026
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Four years of war: stagnation grips Russia’s economy Russia’s economy has proven remarkably resilient since the war in Ukraine began four years ago, underpinned by military-related stimulus, an ability to adapt to Western sanctions and disciplined... 23rd February 2026 · 15 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook US and Asia to lead the AI decade Global growth will slow in the long run as population growth weakens and the scope for emerging market catch-up narrows, but there will be bright spots. We are increasingly confident that advances in... 18th February 2026 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
China Economics Update Can China’s trade surplus rise further? China’s goods trade surplus can’t increase indefinitely. But there’s little sign that policy shifts – either within China or in its trading partners – will prevent the surplus from widening in the... 12th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly China-Panama rupture, precious metals & Lat Am The Panamanian Supreme Court’s decision to annul the licences that allowed a Hong Kong based firm to operate in the Panama Canal has been met with a backlash from China. While it’s not clear if China... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral stockpiles are a symptom of fracturing The stockpiling of critical minerals is an age-old response to a modern-day problem posed by China’s dominance over the supply of rare earths and other raw materials. That said, “Project Vault” will... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What if the US strikes Iran (again)? The build-up of US military forces in the Middle East has led to growing concerns about an attack on Iran and has pushed up oil prices. In light of these developments, we are re-sending this... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of fraying Saudi-UAE ties Frictions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have broken out into the open in the last few weeks. But even if the situation were to escalate, the near-term economic impact would probably be limited. If... 22nd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The latest on the protests in Iran The US appears to have backed away from military intervention to support protestors in Iran, helping oil prices to fall today. But the situation remains extremely fragile. Any near-term disruption to... 15th January 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s AI rollout could rival the US One year on from DeepSeek’s breakthrough, Chinese AI is still hot on the heels of US tech. Despite hardware constraints, China looks set to remain close to the frontier of AI development. And China... 14th January 2026 · 31 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2026 Donald Trump’s tariff policies and his aggressive foreign policy approach are straining relationships with traditional US allies. One consequence that is apparent in our Global Fracturing Dashboard is... 12th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines budget, Vietnam booming, geopolitical shifts The Philippines’ 2026 fiscal budget, recently approved by President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr., points to a sharp fall in infrastructure spending as the corruption scandal continues to weigh on the economy... 9th January 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update A shift in India’s geopolitical alignment In our update of our Global Fracturing map for 2026, we now classify India as unaligned, rather than leaning towards the US, following the cooling of the relationship with the Trump administration... 7th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi back in the US camp, for now Improved relations between Saudi Arabia and the US since President Trump returned to office, as well as recent agreements in the areas of AI-related technologies and defence, mean that we are shifting... 6th January 2026 · 8 mins read
