Asia Economics Update The implications of rising Philippines-China tensions Tensions between the Philippines and China have once again flared up in the South China Seas. However, the fact that the Philippines is not closely integrated into China’s economy means the economic... 11th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ drama ensues, Saudi-China currency swap The surprise delay to the OPEC+ meeting to next week has only added to speculation that the slide in oil prices in recent months and the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas conflict could prompt the group to... 23rd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily The prospects for the “China risk premium” A thawing in China/US tensions could, in our view, help “risky” assets in China for a while by reducing the “China risk premium” that seems to have emerged. But we doubt it would fully reverse the... 16th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Event Drop-In: That Xi-Biden meet in context – How fracturing is reshaping the global outlook 1700139600 The splintering of the world economy into competing US and China-aligned blocs is dominating the macro and financial and commodities markets outlook.
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Where does Saudi Arabia sit in a fracturing world? The past few years have seen Saudi Arabia continue to move away from the US orbit and, as part of our work on global fracturing, we no longer consider Saudi to be unaligned between the US and China... 7th November 2023 · 14 mins read
China Economics Weekly The renminbi’s rise in China’s global transactions For the first time, over half of China’s global transactions are being settled in renminbi. Most of this renminbi isn’t travelling far – the bulk of settlement is being driven by financial flows with... 3rd November 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Foreign investment in China still going strong Foreign direct investment into China, as measured by the balance of payments data, has collapsed. It is tempting to pin this on global fragmentation or a loss of confidence in China’s economic... 30th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Focus Three key lessons on geopolitical risk and markets The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased the uncertainty around the economic and financial market outlook, but in most scenarios is... 26th October 2023 · 13 mins read
China Economics Update AI, China and Global Economic Fragmentation The AI sector in China is developing on a distinct path from that in the West as a result of political choices made in Beijing and Washington. This split will in time extend around the world, becoming... 17th October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China is holding on to its dollars Falls in the value of China’s recorded holdings of US Treasuries tell us little about whether China is divesting from the dollar. A broader look at the data suggests that it isn’t, despite... 4th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Reducing dollar dependence won’t deter dollarisation Talk of “dollarisation” has recently re-emerged, despite broader moves in the EM world to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar. Indeed, the fact that Argentina is considering adopting the dollar... 3rd October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s bullet train, forecast revisions, AI Spotlight Indonesia’s first high-speed train line is due to become operational this Sunday, when a WHOOSH bullet train departs the Indonesian capital of Jakarta for the provincial capital of Bandung, 88 miles... 29th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Few signs of a “nearshoring boom” in Mexico (yet) There’s little evidence in the investment and trade data so far to back up the commonly-cited narrative that Mexico is experiencing a “nearshoring” boom. The one sector where there are some signs of... 12th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update G20 underlines that fracturing is becoming a reality The G20 summit which concluded yesterday in New Delhi supported our view that the global economy is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, and that India still leans to the former. While the... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
