Asia Economics Focus Korea: trade deal, fiscal stimulus priorities for next president Given the widespread public anger toward the impeached former president Yoon Suk Yeol of the People’s Power Party (PPP), following his botched attempt at declaring martial law, Lee Jae-myung of the... 21st May 2025 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom: to hike or not to hike? China’s charm offensive The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week have added fuel to the debate about whether the tightening cycle is now over. But perhaps the bigger point is that, when... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US and China try to shift the fracturing map The flurry of diplomatic activity by both the US and China this week underscores that geopolitical alliances in parts of the emerging world are fluid. We suspect that most countries in Latin America... 16th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s uneasy trade countdown With just over 50 days left until the 90-day pause on Liberation Day tariffs expire, most countries in Asia appear to be making only slow progress on agreeing trade deals with the US. While many... 16th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump’s trip tips the Gulf towards the US President Trump’s visit to the Gulf has led to a raft of deals, totalling nearly $1trn, with more likely in the offing. While Saudi Arabia’s ‘security for oil’ pact that underpinned strong relations... 15th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Trump arrives in a much-changed Middle East Donald Trump has arrived in the Middle East and changes in the power and influence of the region’s actors mean that he will find a very different region to the one during his last visit in 2017. Iran... 13th May 2025 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 15th September 2025) · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update A truce in the US-China trade war The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has... 12th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Kashmir: old tensions in a new geopolitical context If limited just to Kashmir, a period of fighting between Pakistani and Indian forces would have a small impact on the economy of either country. Pakistan would have more to lose than India from a... 7th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral tug of war is not a major macro risk This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage... 30th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Will Asia benefit from China's plunging US exports? Parts of South East Asia, notably Vietnam, as well as India are well placed to immediately gain market share in response to penal US tariffs on Chinese imports. But uncertainty over the future tariff... 29th April 2025 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s weak economy, US support for Argentina The latest data out of Mexico suggest that, despite repeated tariff threats, the economy eked out positive growth in Q1 and avoided a technical recession. But activity is still extremely subdued... 25th April 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US-China decoupling is going into overdrive The gradual unravelling of economic ties between the US and China over the past decade is now giving way to a much more abrupt and extreme rupture. Sky-high tariffs threaten a collapse in bilateral... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update IMF & World Bank meet in Trump’s shadow The Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF take place next week under the cloud not just of US trade protectionism but also the Trump administration’s seeming hostility towards multilateral... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
