Emerging Europe Economics Update The state of play ahead of Hungary’s election The opposition Tisza party heads into Hungary’s election this weekend as the favourite but may still fall short of the two-thirds supermajority needed to deliver deep institutional reform and unlock... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Assessing the China shock for the euro-zone The rise of China has brought both costs and benefits to the euro-zone over the past two decades, but policymakers are increasingly focusing on the costs. Indeed, euro-zone imports from China have... 23rd March 2026 (Updated 30th March 2026) · 16 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Four years of war: stagnation grips Russia’s economy Russia’s economy has proven remarkably resilient since the war in Ukraine began four years ago, underpinned by military-related stimulus, an ability to adapt to Western sanctions and disciplined... 23rd February 2026 · 15 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook US and Asia to lead the AI decade Global growth will slow in the long run as population growth weakens and the scope for emerging market catch-up narrows, but there will be bright spots. We are increasingly confident that advances in... 18th February 2026 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Key takeaways from the NPC and the new Five-Year Plan 6th March 2026, 8:00AM GMT March begins with a pivotal week for China watchers as the government unveils its economic targets for 2026 alongside the 15th Five-Year Plan.
China Economics Update Can China’s trade surplus rise further? China’s goods trade surplus can’t increase indefinitely. But there’s little sign that policy shifts – either within China or in its trading partners – will prevent the surplus from widening in the... 12th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly China-Panama rupture, precious metals & Lat Am The Panamanian Supreme Court’s decision to annul the licences that allowed a Hong Kong based firm to operate in the Panama Canal has been met with a backlash from China. While it’s not clear if China... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral stockpiles are a symptom of fracturing The stockpiling of critical minerals is an age-old response to a modern-day problem posed by China’s dominance over the supply of rare earths and other raw materials. That said, “Project Vault” will... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What if the US strikes Iran (again)? The build-up of US military forces in the Middle East has led to growing concerns about an attack on Iran and has pushed up oil prices. In light of these developments, we are re-sending this... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of fraying Saudi-UAE ties Frictions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have broken out into the open in the last few weeks. But even if the situation were to escalate, the near-term economic impact would probably be limited. If... 22nd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Greenland Crisis – What to make of this US-Europe conflict? 19th January 2026, 11:00AM GMT The transatlantic row over Greenland’s sovereignty intensified over the weekend following Donald Trump’s threat to ratchet up tariffs on European economies until Denmark agrees to sell.
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The latest on the protests in Iran The US appears to have backed away from military intervention to support protestors in Iran, helping oil prices to fall today. But the situation remains extremely fragile. Any near-term disruption to... 15th January 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s AI rollout could rival the US One year on from DeepSeek’s breakthrough, Chinese AI is still hot on the heels of US tech. Despite hardware constraints, China looks set to remain close to the frontier of AI development. And China... 14th January 2026 · 31 mins read
Event Drop-In: The shape of the fractured world in 2026 22nd January 2026, 2:00PM GMT The sheer volume of current geopolitical noise can be bewildering for investors. How is the ebb and flow of US-China tensions affecting global economic activity?
