Chief Economist's Note US chip reversal highlights policy incoherence in a fractured world President Trump likes to tell us that the United States “holds all the cards” in the ongoing trade war. Judging by the surprisingly mild inflationary impact of tariffs so far – less than most... 18th August 2025
Commodities Focus How the AI race will reshape global energy markets Artificial intelligence’s share of global electricity consumption is set to at least double by 2030, to around 3% of the total, and could drive almost half of electricity consumption growth in the US... 21st July 2025 · 15 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Warmer US-China relations, foreigners staying away US-China relations are warming, with growing talk of a Xi-Trump summit and gestures of goodwill on both sides. Further de-escalation, including cooperation on fentanyl, could pave the way to a Phase... 18th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s legislature could flip behind the president Taiwan’s gridlocked government could secure a legislative majority and freedom to enact its policy goals if recall votes next week go its way. The immediate implications for the economy are limited –... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus The Trump-Petro rift and the risks for Colombia Colombia’s shift from being a staunch US ally to embracing China has been one of the starkest geopolitical moves of the last few years. This may put Colombia into President Trump’s crosshairs for... 7th July 2025 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US-China “deal” moves forward but risks remain The trade “deal” reached in Geneva and London has now been finalised and signed. The exact terms have yet to be made public but appear to be limited in scope and still leave economic ties in far worse... 27th June 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: EU is choosing Trump over China, retailers doing well When President Trump returned to office, his aggressive treatment of traditional allies raised the possibility that the EU and China would come together in defence of free trade. But it was clear this... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Limited US-China “deal” suggests ambitions are low A deal with China is done, according to President Trump, but its scope seems to be limited to easing some recent non-tariff restrictions, including China’s rare earth export controls. The wider trade... 11th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: GCC-ASEAN-China summit, Saudi’s shrinking trade surplus The GCC-ASEAN-China summit this week contained a lot of platitudes about boosting trade and investment between China and the Gulf. But it doesn’t change our view that the Gulf’s geopolitical alignment... 29th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea: trade deal, fiscal stimulus priorities for next president Given the widespread public anger toward the impeached former president Yoon Suk Yeol of the People’s Power Party (PPP), following his botched attempt at declaring martial law, Lee Jae-myung of the... 21st May 2025 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom: to hike or not to hike? China’s charm offensive The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week have added fuel to the debate about whether the tightening cycle is now over. But perhaps the bigger point is that, when... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US and China try to shift the fracturing map The flurry of diplomatic activity by both the US and China this week underscores that geopolitical alliances in parts of the emerging world are fluid. We suspect that most countries in Latin America... 16th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s uneasy trade countdown With just over 50 days left until the 90-day pause on Liberation Day tariffs expire, most countries in Asia appear to be making only slow progress on agreeing trade deals with the US. While many... 16th May 2025 · 7 mins read
