Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral tug of war is not a major macro risk This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage... 30th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Will Asia benefit from China's plunging US exports? Parts of South East Asia, notably Vietnam, as well as India are well placed to immediately gain market share in response to penal US tariffs on Chinese imports. But uncertainty over the future tariff... 29th April 2025 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s weak economy, US support for Argentina The latest data out of Mexico suggest that, despite repeated tariff threats, the economy eked out positive growth in Q1 and avoided a technical recession. But activity is still extremely subdued... 25th April 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US-China decoupling is going into overdrive The gradual unravelling of economic ties between the US and China over the past decade is now giving way to a much more abrupt and extreme rupture. Sky-high tariffs threaten a collapse in bilateral... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update IMF & World Bank meet in Trump’s shadow The Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF take place next week under the cloud not just of US trade protectionism but also the Trump administration’s seeming hostility towards multilateral... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Could the US coerce others to increase tariffs on China? The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China. Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Mapping China’s presence in Latin America China’s presence in Latin America is increasingly seen as a strategic threat by the US. This Focus uses interactive charts to map out economic, financial and institutional linkages between China and... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Is Trump’s opening to Russia a “Reverse Nixon”? President Trump’s attempts to reset relations with Russia have led some to suggest that he may be attempting to break apart the Sino-Russian alliance as Nixon did in the early 1970s (although in Nixon... 27th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for... 26th February 2025 (Updated 1st May 2025) · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: your questions answered Following yesterday’s federal election in Germany, this Update answers questions raised by clients in our on-line briefing (which can be viewed here). 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Emissions reduction efforts becoming fractured Whereas political pushback against the cost of climate action is hindering policy in North America and Europe, the tailwinds from China’s low-cost green technology exports are becoming more... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA SONA: Growth, fiscal discipline and Trump President Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation Address (SONA) to recommit to fiscal discipline and investment-led growth, but the government will struggle to balance the two objectives. And we doubt... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
