Asia Economics Update

AI and friendshoring boosting (some) Asian exporters

Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have...

10th July 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Europe leaves the road open for China’s EV-makers

China protested the European Commission’s imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a...

14th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

EU to move cautiously on China de-risking

In the coming years, we expect Europe to raise barriers to trade and investment with China but to do so in a targeted and gradual manner. If so, there would be big implications for some sectors...

7th June 2024 · 17 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Still struggling to curb dependence on China

Today’s trade data underscore again the extent to which global demand is supporting China’s economy, and how little impact the trade restrictions of recent years have had. China’s export volumes have...

7th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election

Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence...

23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

BI on hold, new leaders, Biden tariffs

The recent recovery in the rupiah means Bank Indonesia is unlikely to follow up April’s surprise hike with another interest rate increase when it meets on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Korea could prove to be...

17th May 2024 · 8 mins read

China Economics Focus

China’s overseas lending push has stalled

Overseas loans by Chinese banks peaked in late 2021 and have since been curtailed in response to increased debt problems among EM borrowers. While these strains are partly a consequence of global...

16th May 2024 · 15 mins read

Global Economics Update

What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy

We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of...

15th May 2024 · 6 mins read

China Economics Update

US tariffs tighten the ratchet again

The tariffs announced today on US imports from China won’t cause much direct economic damage since trade in the affected goods is already low. But US economic sanctions on China seem to act like a...

14th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Battery imports to bear the brunt of new US tariffs

The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a...

14th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Drop-In: US and Europe to raise China tariffs – A new phase in global fracturing?

15th May 2024, 9:00AM BST

After weeks of rising tensions around the question of Chinese industrial overcapacity, the Biden administration has announced a new raft of tariffs on goods from China.

Europe Economics Update

What to make of the EU’s trade war with China

Europe will raise barriers to trade and investment with China in the coming months and years. But policymakers will try to balance conflicting objectives so the result may well be a gradual rather...

7th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-US relations, NEOM financing, Morocco and the IMF

Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia and the US are close to reaching a new security pact which, if confirmed, could swing the Kingdom back towards the US's orbit. Meanwhile, Saudi’s flagship gigaproject...

2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Key questions about EU trade defences against China

The anti-dumping duties that the EU is likely to impose on Chinese imports in the coming months will have little macroeconomic impact. But more goods will be targeted in the next couple of years with...

30th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: What Trump’s return would mean for emerging markets

16th May 2024, 3:00PM BST

A second Trump presidency would almost certainly lead to a protectionist lurch from the US, with profound implications for the emerging world.