Chief Economist's Note Overcapacity concerns open up a new front in US-China fracturing It wasn’t so long ago that markets would barely take note of a major summit or meeting between political leaders. These days, bilateral get-togethers are followed by a scouring of accompanying... 16th April 2024
Event EM Drop-In: After the big vote – India’s macro and markets outlook 11th April 2024, 9:00AM BST In a big year for elections, this is the biggest.
Event Drop-In: China equities outlook – Valuations, earnings, fracturing 4th April 2024, 9:00AM BST It's been a tough few years for China's stock market, which has been, at times, one of the worst performers in the world.
Asia Economics Update Would Vietnam win a second trade war? Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated)... 18th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update “New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data Amid increasing concerns in the west over China’s dominance in the production of solar panels, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries – dubbed the “New Three” – China’s exports of green... 14th March 2024 · 0 mins read
US Economics Focus Reshoring still more myth than reality Although it has been a priority for the last three administrations, the reshoring of lost manufacturing jobs remains more myth than reality. There has been a significant boom in the construction of hi... 12th March 2024 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM winners and losers from the green transition The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and... 4th March 2024 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Update Is China exporting deflation? Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in the advanced economies as its export prices have fallen sharply. The direct impact has not been huge, accounting for only a small fraction of... 26th February 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus Trump tariffs: round two would be more damaging Donald Trump’s previous tariffs did surprisingly little damage to China’s economy, but China may find it harder to shrug off the damage in a rematch. Mr Trump is threatening larger tariff increases if... 23rd February 2024 · 22 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: After Jokowi – Indonesia’s election and its long-term economic outlook 13th February 2024, 8:00AM GMT Indonesians go to the polls on 14th February to elect a successor to Joko Widodo, the president popularly known as Jokowi, who pushed through some key reforms to secure the country’s
US Economics Focus Trump's new tariffs would accelerate global fracturing If he wins this year’s presidential election, Donald Trump’s plans for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China specifically would subtract up to 1.5% from... 31st January 2024 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s crisis worsening, Saudi-BRICS membership The past week brought further evidence that strains in Egypt’s balance of payments are ratcheting up, underscoring the need to get the mooted enhanced IMF deal over the line. Elsewhere, the statement... 18th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Could it finally be Chinese equities’ year? We still think that China’s equities could fare well relative to others in the near term, but also that their longer-run prognosis is fairly bleak. 10th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What happens after Taiwan's election? China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s presidential election in Taiwan with stepped-up military drills. But any economic sanctions would almost certainly be... 10th January 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Why has FDI into India slumped? The sharp drop in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India over the past year was in part a consequence of the rise in global interest rates and the worsening global economic backdrop... 9th January 2024 · 5 mins read
