Latin America Economics Update

What China’s export surge means for Latin America

Latin America has played an important role in absorbing China’s export surge, which is generating concern among local policymakers. But the response is likely to vary across the region. Governments in...

15th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Rising geopolitical tensions could prick the AI bubble

A further decoupling of trade ties between the US and China or a sharp rise in Cross-Strait tensions, even if a full-blown conflict is avoided, are two big geopolitical events that we think present a...

11th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

EMs, fracturing and the scramble for raw materials

Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon...

3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read

Global Economics Update

Five key themes in world trade

In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is...

19th September 2024 · 6 mins read

China Economics Update

US ending de minimis tariff waiver for Chinese firms

The US is moving to limit the de minimis tariff exemption that has supported a surge in low value shipments from China over recent years. Only a subset of the roughly 8% of China’s exports to the US...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Update

The differences for China in Harris versus Trump

A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and...

12th September 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Update

New US export controls will be harder to overcome

The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it...

9th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

FOCAC: Africa-China relations in a fracturing world

Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region...

4th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Global Economics Update

Green tech and chips will remain key battlegrounds

Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic...

3rd September 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Will the slump in Chinese equities ever end?

Chinese equities have tumbled today, and while we see scope for them to recover a bit in the coming months, we are quite pessimistic about their medium-to-long term prospects.

2nd September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

EU semiconductor industry will continue to lag behind

Although the EU is making progress in expanding its semiconductor production capacity, including through a new plant in Dresden, it is still a long way behind the US and Asia and is unlikely to catch...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

Recycling’s role in securing critical minerals and metals

China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way...

21st August 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing

The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall...

14th August 2024 · 17 mins read

India Economics Update

What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing

Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs...

13th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela: rig and repress

The declaration that incumbent Nicolás Maduro won Venezuela’s presidential election has been met with protests and international pressure for a full account of the results. But our sense at this stage...

2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read