China Economics Update

US ending de minimis tariff waiver for Chinese firms

The US is moving to limit the de minimis tariff exemption that has supported a surge in low value shipments from China over recent years. Only a subset of the roughly 8% of China’s exports to the US...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Update

The differences for China in Harris versus Trump

A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and...

12th September 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Update

New US export controls will be harder to overcome

The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it...

9th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

FOCAC: Africa-China relations in a fracturing world

Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region...

4th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Global Economics Update

Green tech and chips will remain key battlegrounds

Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic...

3rd September 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Will the slump in Chinese equities ever end?

Chinese equities have tumbled today, and while we see scope for them to recover a bit in the coming months, we are quite pessimistic about their medium-to-long term prospects.

2nd September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

EU semiconductor industry will continue to lag behind

Although the EU is making progress in expanding its semiconductor production capacity, including through a new plant in Dresden, it is still a long way behind the US and Asia and is unlikely to catch...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

Recycling’s role in securing critical minerals and metals

China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way...

21st August 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing

The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall...

14th August 2024 · 17 mins read

India Economics Update

What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing

Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs...

13th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela: rig and repress

The declaration that incumbent Nicolás Maduro won Venezuela’s presidential election has been met with protests and international pressure for a full account of the results. But our sense at this stage...

2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and Saudi-US relations, IMF growth downgrades

Donald Trump has laid out his intentions of restoring warm ties with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election, with the intention of pulling Saudi back into the US’s orbit in a fracturing global economy...

18th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Update

AI and friendshoring boosting (some) Asian exporters

Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have...

10th July 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Europe leaves the road open for China’s EV-makers

China protested the European Commission’s imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a...

14th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

EU to move cautiously on China de-risking

In the coming years, we expect Europe to raise barriers to trade and investment with China but to do so in a targeted and gradual manner. If so, there would be big implications for some sectors...

7th June 2024 · 17 mins read