Chief Economist's Note Tariffs, the Supreme Court, and the shape of trade in a fractured world President Trump has described the Supreme Court case over his tariff regime – with characteristic restraint – as “literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country”. Hyperbole aside, the stakes are indeed high... 10th November 2025
Europe Economics Update De-risking EU supply chains will be a slow process The EU has prioritised becoming more self-sufficient in the production of critical raw materials. While it is making progress, it is likely to remain heavily dependent on China and China-aligned... 5th November 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Xi-Trump talks buy China time to decouple at its own pace The reversal of some US tariffs on China won’t have a big impact given that Chinese exporters had largely shrugged them off. But the de-escalation takes the immediate threat of large tariff hikes off... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: US–China trade talks – a lasting truce or just a pause? 30th October 2025, 9:00AM GMT Our senior economists hosted this special online briefing assessing the Xi-Trump meeting, the latest agreements and the outlook for the US-China economic relationship.
Event EM Drop-In: India at the geo-economic crossroads 13th November 2025, 8:00AM GMT India has been a global bright spot, but it now faces increased uncertainty as the world fractures into US- and China-led economic blocs.
India Economics Update India isn’t ready to become a global rare earths player India has the world’s third-largest proven reserves of rare earths, but it accounts for a tiny share of global production due to various technical and regulatory difficulties. If these hurdles are... 28th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tensions simmering between the EU and China Tensions between the EU and China over rare earths and semiconductors, which continued to simmer this week, could weigh on euro-zone industry, particularly the defence and auto sectors. Next week, the... 24th October 2025 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Critical minerals deal holds promise for Australia The critical minerals agreement signed by Australia and the US will provide only a modest boost to activity in the near term. However, the deal highlights the opportunities that global fracturing... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US defence talks, Egypt-IMF deal, Morocco 2026 Budget The US and Saudi Arabia have stepped up security talks ahead of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House next month. A full defence pact is unlikely to materialise, however, given... 23rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update US may revive plans to curb financial ties with China While talk of US retaliation against China’s new export controls has mostly focused on tariffs and other barriers to goods trade, investment restrictions are another weapon in Washington’s arsenal. If... 15th October 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China’s catch-up is faltering A weak currency and sustained deflation mean that China’s economy is on course to shrink as a share of the global economy for a fourth consecutive year, when measured at market exchange rates. China... 2nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Is Trump pushing India into China’s arms? The deterioration in Indo-US relations appears to have expedited New Delhi’s efforts to strengthen ties with Beijing, as highlighted by Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to China in seven years last... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rubio in Lat Am, Brazil slows, Buenos Aires votes Marco Rubio's trip to Latin America this week highlighted the US’s growing focus on the region - and particularly efforts to curb drug trafficking. The next thing to watch is Colombia's narcotics... 5th September 2025 · 9 mins read
