Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Use setting Monetary Policy
Overview – Increased US tariffs will exacerbate a broader slowdown in exports. China’s economy will also face continued drags from the property downturn and wider deflationary dynamics. A sizeable fiscal loosening will provide a partial offset but won’t …
26th March 2025
Easing cycle paused, and space for additional rate cuts narrows The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.75%, and we think that the scope for further interest rate cuts this year has become more limited. We had previously …
The outlook for EM GDP growth appears increasingly challenging and our growth forecasts for this year generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue although, outside Asia, high inflation means that interest rate cuts will be smaller …
The Reserve Bank of Australia will leave policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting that ends on 1 st April and will probably still sound hawkish. However, with inflation set to soften a touch faster than the Bank had anticipated, we still expect …
Overview – We expect economic growth across the region to remain subdued, with most economies set to record below-trend and below-consensus growth this year. While lower interest rates will provide some support to growth, this boost is likely to be offset …
25th March 2025
As expected, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers unveiled a slew of new spending measures in today’s pre-election Budget. However, we don’t believe the scope of fiscal expansion is large enough to keep the RBA from cutting rates a bit further this year. In …
MNB on hold, high inflation to tie new governors hands The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged today, at 6.50%, and we think its easing cycle will remain on pause throughout 2025 as inflation remains stuck above target. Analysts have …
Overview – Both Antipodean economies seem to have turned a corner at the end of last year, and we expect the recoveries to gather momentum in the coming quarters. Given the tight labour market and elevated public demand, we believe the RBA will only …
The latest flash PMIs suggest that while economic activity may have picked up a bit in advanced economies towards the end of Q1, the outlook remains fairly bleak. And while inflation seems to finally be receding in the euro-zone, price pressures remain …
24th March 2025
The further easing of core services inflation in Mexico in the first half of March combined with recent weak activity data paves the way for Banxico to deliver another 50bp cut at its meeting on Thursday. The headline rate was unchanged from the first …
Weak data to bolster calls for monetary easing The weaker-than-expected February retail sales data out of Poland suggests that the economy may have slowed a bit more sharply than we had been anticipating this quarter. While this won’t prompt the central …
Could a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ fix what ails the US balance of payments? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the show this week to tackle the various ideas around what the Trump administration could do to address long-standing global imbalances. He …
21st March 2025
With the Fed almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, the real focus was on how FOMC participants would update their economic forecasts to fit the policy course being charted by the new Trump administration. In the end, policymakers …
Structural weakness weighs on long-run outlook While China’s treasury yields have picked up in recent weeks, we don’t think that the trend decline of the last decade is over. We expect China’s 10-year government bond yield to fall below Japan’s this year, …
A pause for thought? The Bank of England was never going to do anything but continue the cut-hold-cut-hold pattern and keep interest rates unchanged at 4.50% this week. But the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) hawkish tone suggests it is preparing to …
Colombia: public finance risks back to the fore The resignation of Colombia’s finance minister Diego Guevara after just over three months in office has thrown the Andean nation into renewed disarray and raises big questions about the outlook for the …
Kenya and the IMF agree to disagree Kenya and the IMF abandoned talks over the ninth review of the country’s existing financing programs this week and, while a new deal is in the offing, public debt concerns are likely to build. It’s been clear for some …
The latest data suggest that the world economy has made a relatively weak start to 2025. Activity in China has been soft so far this year amid a pullback in fiscal spending, while a surge in US imports due to tariff front-running appears to have caused US …
Overview – The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany won’t loosen policy very much, and the …
Erdogan alarms investors The arrest of a leading opposition politician in Turkey on Wednesday triggered a major sell-off in the country’s stock market and currency. Events are in flux at the moment, but there are three takeaways. The first is that the …
CBR sounds slightly less hawkish at it leaves rates on hold The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to leave its policy rate on hold at 21.00% today was accompanied by somewhat less hawkish communications. While we doubt the CBR will cut interest …
BoK’s dovish minutes This week’s publication of the minutes from the Bank of Korea’s February meeting , at which it cut rates for a third time in four meetings, show the Bank is becoming increasingly worried about the poor growth outlook. The concern was …
Export volumes jump the most on record While export values have surged in recent years as the weaker exchange rate lifted the yen-value of shipments and firms passed on soaring input costs, the same can’t be said for export volumes, which have tread water …
Norges Bank signalled in January that a rate cut was likely at its meeting next week, but we now think it will leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%. While we still suspect that it will lower interest rates a couple of times this year, the case for much …
20th March 2025
Turkey’s central bank responds with a rate hike The decision by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) to hike its overnight lending rate from 44% to 46% today suggests that policymakers have been spooked by the market volatility yesterday and are keen to reassure …
Overview – Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our forecasts could easily tip the economy into …
Kuwait’s debt law marks a new era for fiscal policy A new public debt law is set to be passed in Kuwait in the near future allowing for the government to finance budget deficits more sustainably. In 2017, Kuwait’s authorisation to issue or refinance debt …
The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate on hold at 7.50% today, but a minority of MPC members voted for a cut and we do not think the easing cycle is over. If inflation continues to surprise on the downside as we expect and there is clarity on …
While leaving interest rates at 4.50% today, the Bank of England seemed less committed to continuing to cut rates by 25bps every quarter. We had already been pondering this possibility and today’s news has tipped us towards putting a pause in the rate …
A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average, as President Trump’s trade and immigration policies …
For an updated and more detailed version of this analysis, click here . Committee less committed to collection of rate cuts The Bank of England was always going to continue its cut-hold-cut-hold pattern by leaving interest rates at 4.50% today but, in the …
Brazil’s inflation outlook appears increasingly worrying, and the headline rate is likely to hit around 6% y/y by year-end, which is a bit higher than most expect. That’s likely to trigger a few more rate hikes in the coming months, taking the Selic rate …
The Riksbank left both its policy rate and its interest rate forecasts unchanged at today’s meeting, suggesting that monetary policy will be on hold for the foreseeable future. And while policymakers largely dismissed the sharp rise in inflation so far …
In the press conference following today’s SNB meeting, Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasised that inflation risks are mainly do the downside, suggesting that a further cut in June is possible. But we think today’s rate cut, taking the policy rate from 0.5% …
India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy. We’re expecting a further 75bps of cuts to the …
We still expect Treasury yields to rise by the end of the year, despite the seemingly reassuring news for bonds from the Fed on Wednesday. There were, at face value, a few things for Treasury investors to take heart from in the latest Fed meeting. The …
Riksbank's next move likely to be a hike The Riksbank left both its policy rate and interest rate forecasts unchanged at today’s meeting, suggesting that monetary policy will be on hold for the foreseeable future. However, we think the Bank is likely to …
On hold throughout 2025 Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.0%), and is likely to leave rates unchanged throughout 2025. The decision to keep rates on hold came as no surprise and was correctly predicted by all 33 …
Today’s cut the last of the cycle for SNB We think today’s SNB rate cut, taking the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.25%, will be the last in this cycle. While inflation was very low in February, at just 0.3%, and may fall further in the coming months, …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Labour market cooling rather collapsing With the labour market cooling rather than collapsing and wage growth stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range, we doubt the Bank of England will cut …
New Zealand economy escapes recession As expected, the New Zealand economy came out of recession at the end of last year. As the impact of recent monetary loosening filters through, we expect the recovery to continue apace in the coming quarters. The 0.7% …
19th March 2025
Copom shrugs off growth concerns and flags another hike The Brazilian central bank made clear in the statement accompanying today’s 100bp interest rate hike (to 14.25%) that it’s far more concerned about high inflation than weakness in the economy. We now …
Although the FOMC stuck to its projection for two rate cuts this year, a growing number of officials share our view that further loosening is unlikely amid the increased upside risks to inflation. Otherwise, the Fed confirmed that it will slow the pace of …
Fed continues to expect two rate cuts this year, while slowing QT to a crawl Although the FOMC stuck to its median projection for two interest rate cuts this year, some officials now share our view that further loosening is unlikely and we continue to …
Euro-zone services inflation fell to a 10-month low in February and leading indicators point to further declines in the coming months. We think this will prompt the ECB to cut interest rates at its meetings in April and June, taking the deposit rate from …
The sharp drop in the Turkish lira on the news that the main opposition leader, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has been arrested will complicate the central bank’s task of bringing inflation down and raises big questions about the government’s ability to sustain …
Soft inflation keeps rate cut in play The weaker-than-expected South African inflation figure for February, of 3.2% y/y, keeps the door open for the Reserve Bank to lower the repo rate by 25bp (to 7.25%) at its meeting tomorrow. The outturn was unchanged …
Rates on hold, but further easing likely later in the year Bank Indonesia today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 5.75%) but hinted that further easing was likely later in the year. We are maintaining our view that the central bank will cut rates …
With the Bank of Japan sounding a bit more worried about downside risks to activity from US tariffs than about upside risks to inflation, we’re pushing back our forecast for the next rate hike from May to July. However, we still expect the Bank to lift …
Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.5% by 2027 The BoJ’s decision to leave policy settings unchanged today was widely anticipated but we still think that the Bank’s tightening cycle has much further to run. After having lifted its policy rate to 0.5% in …
