A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average, as President Trump’s trade and immigration policies take a toll. The downtrend in inflation has halted and tariffs will only put further upward pressure on prices as they are implemented. As a result, we expect the Fed to leave rates on hold this year, at between 4.25 and 4.50%.
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