India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy. We’re expecting a further 75bps of cuts to the repo rate (to 5.50%) in this cycle, a more dovish view than that of the consensus. At face value, India could be hit by a particularly high reciprocal tariff on exports to the US. But early concessions to President Trump may mean India is not hit so hard.
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