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Property valuations improved substantially in Q2, on the back of a huge 120 bps drop in equities earnings yields. However, while the office, retail and apartment sectors look undervalued on our valuation measure, with income streams likely to fall over …
20th August 2020
Returns fall sharply in Q2, with more pain expected in H2 As expected, all-property total returns turned negative in Q2, led lower by sharp markdowns in the retail and hotel sectors. And, while rental values and capital values fell in all sectors last …
27th July 2020
Debt covenants generally look less stretched in this downturn than during the GFC. And, although interest cover ratios are relatively low in some REIT sub-sectors, the short, sharp, fall in capital values that we are forecasting means that it is unlikely …
16th July 2020
CMBS delinquencies have risen sharply in recent months, yet we aren’t expecting a repeat of the real estate debt meltdown witnessed in the GFC. However, non-performing loan rates are especially high in the retail and lodging sectors, meaning that holders …
8th July 2020
Consensus downgrades suggest a more downbeat mood Forecasts for all indicators in 2020 have shown a marked deterioration since the interim year-end 2019 forecast published in January. While the consensus sector ranking is in line with our March forecasts, …
21st May 2020
Commercial real estate returns dip in Q1, but likely to turn negative in Q2 Data for the first quarter show that all-property total returns saw their weakest quarterly performance since the tail-end of the GFC. Given that occupier market conditions have …
28th April 2020
This Focus is a reference guide for clients of our new US Commercial Property service. It outlines the key pillars of our forecasting approach, updating previous methodological work from our established European and UK Property Services. Our five-year …
17th March 2020
We are launching our new subscription service on US commercial real estate by outlining six key calls that we believe will shape the sector’s story in the coming years. The macroeconomic environment of low, but steady economic growth, alongside a …
28th January 2020
With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the comparison with the long-term average property yield. …
9th January 2019
NB. Please download the attached pdf for the full publication with charts. Dire predictions for US shopping centre closures appear relatively well-founded. However, for a variety of reasons – including more defensive lease terms, lower stock per capita …
3rd May 2018
