About half of the 0.6% m/m fall in real GDP in September and half of the 0.2% q/q decline in Q3 as a whole was caused by the one-off reduction in the number of working days due to the extra bank holiday for the Queen’s funeral. But after stripping that out, real GDP still declined in Q3 and we think this marks the start of the recession. That’s hardly a good backdrop for the tightening in fiscal policy the Chancellor is expected to announce in the Autumn Statement next Thursday.
We’ll be discussing the implications for the economy and the financial markets of the Autumn Statement in a 20-minute online briefing at 4pm GMT on 17th November. (Register here.)
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