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ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2022)

Consensus forecasts for 2023 have been downgraded pretty sharply since the Spring, but we don’t think they have gone far enough. While the consensus is predicting total returns of nearly 4% next year, we expect returns to turn negative. We differ most significantly on the outlook for the apartment sector, where we see rents falling slightly next year and returns of below minus 5%, whereas the consensus forecast is for another 3.5% rise in rents and returns of nearly 6%.

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