Rising vacancy will cut London office rents

Even as Central London office vacancy rates rose to a 12-year peak in Q3, annual rental growth ticked-up to three-year high. That marks a reversal from the situation prior to COVID-19, when a tight market failed to spark a strong rise in rents. But we think the relationship will begin to reassert itself as office employment falls back during next year’s recession. We expect Central London rents to fall 3% between now and end-2024.