Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
South Africa reembraces fiscal discipline The biggest event this week was South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on Wednesday, which was pitched as pro-growth, but the numbers underline that the Treasury sees little room to loosen the …
1st November 2024
It’s still unclear if consumption will be prioritised Over the weekend, the Vice Finance Minister confirmed that the NPC Standing Committee is set to approve a fiscal package at its upcoming meeting , set to last from Monday to Friday of next week. At a …
Has Poland’s consumer recovery gone into reverse? The downside surprise in Polish retail sales data this week was the biggest at any point in the past decade. (See Chart 1.) In contrast to expectations for a slight slowdown in growth to +2.0% y/y in …
25th October 2024
Dead Nigeria Shell oil deal sign of local firm worries This week Nigeria rejected Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business, the latest multinational attempt to divest from Nigeria. Lower foreign investment makes us less hopeful on Nigeria’s oil production …
Fiscal package may be revealed in two weeks At its 12 th October press conference, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) offered some reassurances that fiscal spending would pick up in the final months of this year and stay supportive into 2025. But it didn’t …
SARB lays out requirements for lower rates The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that recommitting to fiscal consolidation and pushing through structural reforms are key to creating extra space for …
18th October 2024
External developments: the good, the bad & the ugly The current account data released across the region over the past week show that external positions have continued to improve in some countries (notably Turkey), while in others they are deteriorating …
BRICS+ to meet with a notable absentee Next week’s BRICS+ summit in Russia is likely to focus on the group’s further expansion after Egypt and the UAE (along with several other countries) joined last year. Notably, however, Saudi Arabia – which was also …
17th October 2024
Kenya’s second consecutive 75bp cut Kenya’s lowered its policy rate by 75bp this week and continued disinflation alongside an improved external environment mean that Kenya will deliver further monetary loosening over the coming months. Similar trends are …
11th October 2024
Consumer support and a larger deficit Tomorrow’s press conference will provide a platform for the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to reveal its fiscal plans. The stakes are high - most observers agree that recent stimulus announcements won’t amount to much …
Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing hostilities across the Middle East. The latest ratcheting up …
4th October 2024
CNY nears strong end of its trading band We regret to inform our readers that the chart and analysis in this section contained errors. We have added a corrected chart below. The original chart and analysis have also been retained for reference but should …
CBN rate hikes about inflation and credibility The Central Bank of Nigeria’s surprise hike this week highlighted the greater progress that the MPC wants to see on the inflation front and also importantly its steadfast ambition to restore its trust and …
27th September 2024
Tailwind from Fed’s easing cycle will be small The US easing cycle that got underway with a 50bp cut this week will provide a boost to economic activity in Hong Kong, where a fixed exchange rate means interest rates track those in the US. We expect the …
20th September 2024
PIF investment in Egypt: the first of many? Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has pledged to invest $5bn into Egypt in a further sign that March’s policy shift is attracting international attention. At the same time, this will help to put …
19th September 2024
A temporary boost to employment growth After years of delay, China’s legislature today passed a bill that raises the statutory retirement age for the first time since 1978. In January, it will increase from 60 to 63 for men, 55 to 58 for white-collar …
13th September 2024
The ECB’s easing cycle continued this week and the first Fed rate cut is just around the corner, but we still think that central banks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are now at the beginning of a slower phase of their easing cycles and will loosen …
What will the US election mean for the Asia growth outlook? Will China’s economy overtake the US? Will India fulfil its growth potential? We’re tackling these issues and more in our Asia roundtable in London on Tuesday, 24th September. If you’d like to …
Canada joins tariff hiking club On Monday, Canada announced a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles and 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel. The tariffs themselves won’t have much of a macro impact – the affected goods make up less than 0.1% …
30th August 2024
Chinese lending to Africa increases Data out this week showed that Chinese lending to Africa increased for the first time since 2016. With fiscal policy tight, African economies will welcome more financing. But the region would also benefit from efforts …
Further signs of fiscal complacency in Poland The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to our …
Falling fertility bodes poorly for long-run outlook Data released this week showed that Korea's fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime) dropped further to 0.72 last year (see Chart 1), the lowest of …
Libya’s oil shutdown could influence OPEC+ The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the loss of …
29th August 2024
Nigeria businesses downbeat, but economy turning A CBN business survey published this week suggested that businesses are still downbeat on the economy, but we think slowing inflation and a more stable naira may soon bring some near-term cheer. The …
23rd August 2024
Ukraine’s surprise incursion Ukraine’s incursion into Russia continued this week. Ukraine found a weak spot in Russian defences two weeks ago and mobilised resources to exploit it. The scale of the incursion is significant, with some suggesting that …
RBI Governor pushes back against change to target A longstanding debate in Indian policymaking circles over which measure of consumer price inflation the RBI should target has been reignited in recent weeks. In the Government’s Annual Economic Survey …
Poland the region’s star in Q2 Perhaps the standout feature of the data released in the region this week was the strength of Polish GDP in Q2. Output expanded by a bumper 1.5% q/q, its fastest pace since Q1 2022. (See our initial take here .) The data …
16th August 2024
Corporate borrowing still growing at a decent clip China’s July credit data came in weaker than expected on Wednesday. In particular, despite the PBOC cutting the loan prime rate last month, net new bank loans to the real economy turned negative for the …
Mpox fears rising on the continent This week, the WHO declared mpox a global public health emergency amidst a surge in cases in parts of Africa. Beyond the human tragedy, there may be disruption of economic activity in the region, with tourism impacted …
Further political uncertainty in Thailand Today’s election by Thailand’s parliament of Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister is unlikely to draw a line under the country’s mounting political instability. Paetongtarn’s father Thaksin and aunt Yingluck …
Regulator comes under fire in Adani Group saga The Adani Group/Hindenburg Research saga took a new twist this week, 18 months after the publication by the US short-seller alleging “brazen stock manipulation and account fraud over the course of decades” …
Domestic factors outweigh global turmoil Idiosyncratic factors seemed to play a bigger role than the recent global financial market turmoil in driving African markets this week. But while the fall in oil prices may be overdone, African producers should …
9th August 2024
Our Asia team will be holding a Drop-In on Wednesday 14th August at 0830 ET/1330 BST to discuss the timing of Asian interest rate cuts and the impact of global markets volatility. Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. US growth …
US recession risks yet to derail export outlook The recent batch of weaker-than-expected US data rattled global markets this week. But it hasn’t significantly altered China’s economic outlook. Admittedly, the risk of a US recession, which would hurt …
8th August 2024
Sell-off’s hit to oil likely to be reversed Fears of a US recession have rattled global financial markets earlier in the week, and those in the Middle East weren’t spared. We think the spillover into the oil market has gone too far, though, and it raises …
We will be holding a Drop-In next Thursday at 15.00 BST discussing financial risk across the EM world. Register for the 20-minute online briefing here . Nigeria turns back to Ways and Means facility Nigeria’s government raised the limit of its Ways and …
2nd August 2024
We will be holding a Drop-In next Thursday at 15.00 BST discussing financial risk across the EM world. Register for the 20-minute online briefing here . Tensions in the Middle East rising after Israeli strikes The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied …
We've been here before We wouldn’t take Tuesday’s pledge from the Politburo to tilt stimulus towards consumption at face value. The leadership called for policies to lift incomes and enhance the capacity and willingness of low- and middle-income groups to …
Bond restrictions highlight investor wariness The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) this week announced restrictions on foreign investment on all newly-issued 14-year and 30-year local-currency sovereign bonds. Effective immediately, foreigners will now only be …
Growing drumbeat of support measures Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks. First, they took the unusual step of discussing the current economic situation in the Third Plenum …
26th July 2024
Korea’s unbalanced economy Figures published earlier this week showed that GDP in Korea contracted in the second quarter of the year. While the outturn was below analyst expectations, it was exactly in line with our own estimate. The figures also …
Continuing blackouts in Egypt show need for a fix Egypt’s electricity blackouts have persisted this week and, while there is light at the end of the tunnel, the government needs to boost energy investments to avoid a repeat of power cuts in the coming …
25th July 2024
Nigeria: yet more spending…. Nigeria announced this week that it needs to raise its 2024 budget spending again, which will be funded by a windfall tax on banks. But efforts are needed to permanently boost revenues if Nigeria’s public finances aren’t to be …
19th July 2024
GDP breakdown points to weaker services activity The lower-than-expected Q2 GDP figures released earlier this week suggest that China’s economy has lost some momentum recently. The detailed sectoral breakdown, published a day after the headline data, …
External positions in good health ... Romania aside Balance of payments data released across the region this week showed that current account positions generally deteriorated in May. Poland recorded a monthly deficit of €63m, while Czechia had an external …
Slowdown in growth over the coming quarters The highlight of the coming week is the publication of the first estimate of Korean GDP growth for Q2. Korea’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year, with growth hitting 1.3% q/q, which …
Full Budget a key test for new government For India watchers, the Union Budget announcement on Tuesday 23 rd July will be one of the key economic events this year. In election years, the Union Budget takes place later than normal and often contains new …
Trump sets out his stall for warmer Saudi ties Donald Trump has outlined his intentions to improve relations with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election. But potential tensions over the handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict mean that, for now, Saudi officials …
18th July 2024
CBN hints at rate cuts but inflation risks linger Nigeria’s central bank governor this week hinted that rate cuts may soon be on the cards but there are still upside inflation risks that could scupper those plans. Governor Cardoso’s remarks at an event in …
12th July 2024
Narrowing in Hungary’s budget deficit may not last Hungary’s government announced a new set of measures this week to increase tax revenues and to avoid the budget deficit slipping below its target this year. The government said that firms that have …