Our US team believe that while a soft landing for the US economy is still the most likely outcome, the risk of a hard landing has risen. Vietnam stands out as the most vulnerable country in Asia to a downturn in the US. Meanwhile, the BSP’s meeting on Thursday is likely to be a close call, but with inflation set to fall back sharply in August, we think a rate cut is the most likely outcome. Finally, easing political tensions in Bangladesh following Monday’s shock resignation of PM Sheikh Hasina support our view that the impact of the recent political violence on the economy will be relatively small and short lived.
Our Asia team will be holding a Drop-In on Wednesday at 0830 ET/1330 BST to discuss the timing of Asian interest rate cuts and the impact of global markets volatility. Register here for the 20-minute online briefing.
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