Overview – The war in Ukraine will have spillover effects for property in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), albeit that Russia will be far worst hit. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on property demand, while inflation and …
30th March 2022
Overview - We expect Japan’s economic output to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year. With the recovery from the pandemic complete, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.7% this year to just 1.0% in 2024. The Bank of Japan won’t respond to …
Overview – Property demand in the Scandinavian and Swiss markets is expected to hold up this year, as they are more insulated from the negative impacts of the war in Ukraine on economic activity. However, structural shifts will continue to cloud the …
24th March 2022
Overview – While the direct impact of the war in Ukraine is likely to be small, we think there will be indirect consequences for euro-zone commercial property markets. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on property demand. But as …
18th March 2022
Overview – We expect the robust investment activity seen last year, particularly in H2, to persist into 2022. Although this has competed yields to record lows in the industrial and apartment sectors, we still see further room for yield falls this year in …
15th March 2022
Our forecast that lingering price pressures will prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates from 0.50% now to a peak of 2.00% next year suggests there is little scope for market interest rate expectations to rise further. Even so, we think that an …
24th February 2022
Although the Fed is poised to step on the brakes to tackle the highest rate of inflation in four decades, we don’t expect the yields of US equities and Treasuries to rise to anywhere near their peaks in 1982 after the central bank jacked up rates. …
18th February 2022
Overview – The worst of the Omicron wave appears to have passed and we expect growth to rebound later this year, albeit weighed down by weak consumer income growth. But persistently high inflation is now set to bring a concerted tightening in Base Rate, …
Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate some of the structural trends that were already set to …
10th February 2022
Overview – It is likely to take longer than most expect for rising interest rates to cool the housing market. Mortgage rates have only just begun to rise from the record low reached in November, and limited supply, high household savings, and the boost to …
4th February 2022
Overview – Energy prices will remain volatile for the next few months, but should fall back later this year as demand drops back and supply picks up. That said, the shortfall of supply over the last year or so means that energy stocks are now extremely …
1st February 2022
Although we expect a further rise in government bond yields to undermine the returns from most “safe” assets, we don’t expect it to be big enough to bring the prices of most “risky” financial assets crashing down. Nonetheless, we think that the returns …
31st January 2022
Overview – Mortgage rates are on the rise, and we expect the 30-year rate will increase to 4.0% by end-2022 and 4.5% by end-2023. While that only takes mortgage rates back to where they were in early 2019, house prices have risen 30% since then. With …
28th January 2022
Although government bond yields have already risen sharply this year, we think that they will continue to increase as central banks press ahead with monetary tightening this year and next. Higher yields will, in our view, weigh further on developed market …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – Growth across much of the emerging world will be weaker this year than last, with Emerging Europe and China in particular likely to fall short of consensus expectations. The EM monetary tightening cycle will continue, …
Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic recovery from the pandemic is likely to remain one of the weakest of any region over 2022-23 and our GDP growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. The latest virus waves already seem to be ebbing, but low …
Overview – Soaring energy prices have given a renewed boost to industrial metals prices in recent months but, if we are right, and power costs ease back from April, we think prices will fall sharply later in 2022. After all, demand for metal from key …
27th January 2022
Overview – Supply shortages have directly pushed up the prices of energy commodities and have indirectly raised prices of other commodities by boosting production costs. We think this will remain the case for at least another few months. But as we move …
26th January 2022
The re-tightening of restrictions has overshadowed the start of the year in Switzerland and the Nordics, and our GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are about 0.5%-pts lower than the consensus. Nonetheless, the soft patches for activity should be short …
Overview - China will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction. Policy support should improve the picture later in the year, but mounting structural headwinds will limit the extent of any …
Overview – The recovery across the Middle East and North Africa is likely to gather pace this year, due in large part to the Gulf where rising oil output will cause GDP growth to pick up to rates well above current consensus expectations. Recoveries …
25th January 2022
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – Global growth will be slower this year than last and we expect outturns in major economies including the US and China to be below consensus forecasts. The US economy will be hindered by persistent labour shortages …
Overview – Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to raise interest rates in 2022, but with …
Overview – Despite a weak start to the year, we expect GDP to rise by 3.6% in 2022 due to broad-based gains in consumption, business investment and net trade. Against that backdrop, the Bank of Canada is set to raise interest rates four times in 2022. As …
24th January 2022
Overview – We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic path for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, …
21st January 2022
Although the dollar’s rally has stalled over the past six weeks or so, and may tread water for a while longer, we think that it will ultimately appreciate a bit further this year and next. The key driver of the greenback’s rise since the middle of last …
20th January 2022
Overview – The regional recovery will lag further behind others in the emerging world in the coming years. The Omicron-led surge in virus cases presents a risk to growth in the near term, but we suspect that the economic hit will be small. Larger drags …
Overview – We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we think that persistent capacity constraints …
Overview – We expect underlying inflation to remain well above the 2% target this year, which means the Fed will push ahead with four rate hikes even though real GDP growth is likely to disappoint. Core inflation will average 4.3% in 2022 and close to …
Overview – Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has tightened more rapidly than we had …
Overview – India’s Omicron wave should only be a temporary setback to the economic recovery. As long as recurrent large waves of COVID are avoided, we think that economic growth will be faster this year than last. We also think that inflation will soon …
19th January 2022
Overview – Although the hit to households’ real incomes from a bigger surge in CPI inflation than most expect (to a peak of almost 7% in April) explains why we think GDP growth will be slower this year than the consensus forecast, we still think that the …
17th January 2022
Overview - The Omicron surge will cause a renewed fall in consumer spending this quarter. But we still expect GDP to return to its pre-virus path in the second half of the year. And while Omicron and any subsequent outbreaks may exacerbate supply …
12th January 2022
Overview – Our stronger national office forecast this quarter mean upgrades to all six major markets. The largest of those uplifts is in Boston, which has seen a sharp rise up the rankings and where we expect total returns to hit double-digits in 2021 and …
23rd December 2021
Overview – Apartment markets in major coastal cities underperformed the national average in 2021, as they were more heavily impacted by lockdowns and the move of some households to cheaper, sunbelt cities. But as long as Omicron doesn’t throw a spanner in …
17th December 2021
Overview – With the recovery running out of steam and the emergence of the Omicron variant posing a downside risk, the economic backdrop is likely to provide less support to the property recovery over the coming quarters . Nevertheless, we think that both …
16th December 2021
Overview – The near-term economic outlook has weakened, though GDP in the region had already surpassed its pre-virus levels by Q3. Meanwhile, inflation is set to fall back next year, allowing most central banks to keep interest rates on hold. While the …
14th December 2021
Overview – The major change to our forecasts this quarter is that we now see strong demand for assets persisting well into 2022 and pushing yields down further. That is true in all sectors, with retail and offices joining the party, but with industrial …
10th December 2021
Overview – The near-term economic outlook has weakened, with the Omicron variant posing further downside risk. Meanwhile, inflation is likely to be higher for longer. However, we expect it to fall back by 2023, allowing interest rates to remain low. This …
9th December 2021
Although the economic backdrop has recently become less favourable for UK asset prices, we expect that the economic recovery will regain some vigour in the second half of next year, that CPI inflation will fall close to the 2.0% target in late 2022 and …
22nd November 2021
Overview – The economic recovery has stalled and the near-term outlook is softer. Meanwhile, higher inflation is expected to bring interest rate hikes as early as December 2021, though we think that the pace of tightening will be fairly gradual. The …
19th November 2021
Overview – We think it will take longer than most others expect for rising interest rates to bring down the curtain on the COVID-19 house price boom. A large stock of household savings, the ongoing adjustment to home working and very limited stock on the …
8th November 2021
Overview – Industrial metals prices have risen recently on the back of supply concerns related to higher energy costs and power rationing in China. Both factors will continue to support prices in the near term. However, we expect these supply issues to be …
3rd November 2021
Overview – Following sizzling rallies in the prices of energy commodities in 2021, we expect prices to ease back in 2022 on the back of lower growth in demand and improved supply. Current high prices will incentivise producers to raise output and will …
1st November 2021
While the combination of a strong economic recovery and accommodative monetary policy has fuelled healthy returns for many investors over the past 18 months or so, we think that the macroeconomic backdrop is now becoming more challenging. We still expect …
29th October 2021
Overview – Mortgage rates have risen to a six-month high and will increase further over the next couple of years. While inventory is set to remain tight, cutting the risk of an outright fall in house prices, that rise in interest rates coupled with tight …
28th October 2021
Download the PDF for the Full Report Overview – Low stocks ahead of winter in the Northern Hemisphere have sent energy prices soaring. In turn, higher energy costs have also constrained the production of other commodities, most notably industrial metals. …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity producers. Lower vaccine …
While long-dated government bond yields have risen quite a bit in recent months, we suspect that continued inflationary pressure and the prospect of tighter monetary policy means they still have some way to climb. We expect yields to rise by the most in …
27th October 2021
Overview – Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal policy. As a result, rebounds in most economies …