Near-term softness, long-term optimism

The RBI’s tightening cycle is in its final throes and, as the economy softens and inflation drops back to within the central bank’s 2-6% target range, we think rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the longer term, India’s growth prospects are still among the brightest in the world. It stands to benefit from strong population growth and the “friend-shoring” of manufacturing supply chains as the global economy fractures.