Central banks to start cutting rates by year-end

High interest rates and weak export demand will weigh on the region’s economies this year, and we expect below-trend and below-consensus growth in most countries in 2023. The exceptions are China, which has rebounded strongly on the back of a reopening boost from the pandemic, and a few tourist destinations that will benefit from a wave of returning Chinese visitors. Emerging Asia’s central banks have started to bring their tightening cycles to a close. With growth set to struggle and inflation falling back, we expect countries to start loosening monetary policy in the second half of the year.