Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
NBR leaves rates on hold with inflation poised to rebound The communications accompanying the decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold, at 6.50%, suggest policymakers are concerned about the inflationary impacts of …
8th July 2025
BoI leaves rates on hold, but cuts coming a little sooner The slightly more dovish communications accompanying the decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, and the easing in geopolitical risks, suggest that …
7th July 2025
Soft inflation print points to July rate cut The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in June, to 35.0%, supports our view that the central bank will restart its easing later this month. We maintain our forecast for the one-week repo rate to be …
3rd July 2025
NBP cuts by 25bp, with two further cuts likely this year The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 5.00%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). With inflation likely to fall back …
2nd July 2025
Warning signs for industry at the end of Q2 The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the region. That …
1st July 2025
Rate cut still on the cards on Wednesday The small rise in Polish inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in June is likely to be followed by a fall back within the central bank’s target range over the second half of this year. We think this will give the National Bank …
30th June 2025
CEE generally resilient, with some weak spots The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional economic activity has been resilient in Q2, although there remains some points of concern – …
27th June 2025
Banxico cuts by 50bp, but tone slightly less dovish Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) lowered its policy rate by another 50bp, to 8.00%, at today’s meeting, but the accompanying communications were slightly less dovish and point to a slower pace of easing …
26th June 2025
Inflation eases, Copom’s tightening cycle over The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.3% y/y in the first half of June reinforces our view that the central bank won’t push through further interest rate hikes. An easing cycle is likely to begin …
CNB leaves rates on hold, easing cycle at an end The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, and we think that further monetary easing is unlikely this year. That is a slightly more hawkish view than the consensus, which …
25th June 2025
Hawkish MNB won’t rush to restart easing cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold today at 6.50% and, in contrast to the consensus view that the easing cycle will resume this year, we think rates will remain unchanged throughout …
24th June 2025
Copom provides a hawkish hint that tightening cycle is over Brazil’s central bank opted, as we had expected, for a 25bp hike in the Selic today to 15.00% and, while the tightening cycle is probably now over, Copom went out of its way to push back against …
18th June 2025
Low inflation suggests SARB’s easing cycle has more room to run The fact that South Africa’s headline inflation was unchanged at 2.8% y/y in May, lends more evidence that the SARB should be unworried about underlying price pressures in the economy. Coming …
Private demand continues its decline Bank loan growth continued to slow last month, but broad credit growth held steady, thanks to the continued strength of non-bank borrowing. With deflation keeping real lending rates elevated, despite the recent small …
13th June 2025
Headline inflation drops to 75-month low; has now bottomed out India’s headline consumer price inflation fell to a 75-month low of 2.8% y/y in May. Inflation may now have bottomed out, but we think it will rise only very gradually back towards the Reserve …
12th June 2025
Inflation drops, but Copom likely to hike one final time next week The slightly larger-than-expected fall in Brazil’s headline inflation, to 5.3% y/y, was driven by weaker food inflation. Underlying price pressures continued to strengthen and, against …
10th June 2025
Inflation rise won’t prevent further cuts from Banxico Mexico’s headline inflation rate jumped to 4.4% y/y in May but this was mainly driven by stronger non-core prices and so is unlikely to trouble officials at the central bank. Indeed, with the economy …
9th June 2025
CBR delivers dovish surprise as overheating pressures ease The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut its policy rate by 100bp today, to 20.00%, came as a dovish surprise, and we now think the policy rate will now end this year at 17.00% …
6th June 2025
Rates left on hold, but easing cycle to resume before long The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold today, at 5.25%, but this is only likely to mark a short pause in the easing cycle. We think that interest rates will be cut again at …
4th June 2025
Growth slowdown strengthens case for more rate cuts South Africa’s muted 0.1% q/q growth in the first quarter of the year on the back of a downwardly revised 0.4% expansion in Q4 of last year suggests the recovery is losing momentum. That will only …
3rd June 2025
Downside inflation surprise re-opens the door to monetary easing The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in May, to 35.4%, will increase the CBRT’s confidence that it can restart its easing cycle soon. While we had thought the easing cycle …
Opposition victory will continue to block government reform drive The victory for Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the nationalist opposition party (PiS), in Poland’s presidential election will continue to stymie the government’s efforts to push through …
2nd June 2025
Encouraging signs for the rebalancing process The slowdown in Turkish GDP growth, to 1.0% q/q, in Q1 and, more importantly, the fact that net trade is propping up growth provide positive signs that policymakers’ efforts to rebalance the economy and bring …
30th May 2025
Easing cycle to remain on pause, but tariff risks grow larger The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think it is likely that above-target inflation will prevent interest rate cuts being delivered this …
27th May 2025
Regional growth resilient (for now) despite tariffs The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that pockets of the region are starting to feel the bite from US tariffs, but that overall regional …
BoI leaves rates on hold, timeline for easing slipping back The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate unchanged as expected at 4.50% again today, but the accompanying communications took a slightly more hawkish tone on inflation. We think the easing …
26th May 2025
CBE delivers smaller cut as disinflation (temporarily) stalls The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut its overnight deposit rate by a smaller-than-expected 100bp today, to 24.00%. But as inflation continues to ease over the coming months, we still think …
22nd May 2025
Inflation stays low, but inflation target change may keep SARB on hold The rise in South Africa’s headline inflation to 2.8% y/y still left it below the lower bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range and, ordinarily, would make us more confident that …
21st May 2025
Rates on hold with CBN in wait-and-see mode The Central Bank of Nigeria left its policy rate on hold at 27.50% today and, with the disinflation progressing slowly and concerns that low oil prices will put downward pressure on the naira, it looks like it …
20th May 2025
Trade war starts to take its toll After an improvement in March, China’s economy looks to have slowed again last month, with firms and households turning more cautious due to the trade war. While the recent US-China tariff de-escalation will alleviate …
19th May 2025
Sharp contraction at the start of the year The sharp slowdown in Russian GDP growth from 4.5% y/y in Q4 to 1.4% in Q1 is consistent with a sharp fall in output and suggests that the economy may be heading for a much harder landing than we had expected. …
16th May 2025
Risks now skewed towards hikes rather than further cuts The National Bank of Romania (NBR) highlighted concerns with the uncertain political backdrop and recent pressure on the currency when leaving its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%. We now think …
Growth concerns leave the door open for another 50bp cut in June Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) lowered its policy rate by another 50bp, to 8.50%, at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications underlined that policymakers’ concerns have shifted …
15th May 2025
Growth slows across CEE ... but Poland beats expectations The Q1 GDP data released in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) today confirmed that growth slowed across the region ahead of the introduction of US tariffs. That said, Poland’s relatively strong …
Inflation rises, but Banxico still on course for a 50bp cut next week Mexico’s headline inflation rate edged up to 3.9% y/y in April, but we think that the challenging growth outlook and the relative resilience in the peso leave the door open for another …
8th May 2025
Copom hikes again, but tightening cycle near an end (if not already over) Brazil’s central bank hiked the Selic rate by a further 50bp, to 14.75%, today and officials made clear in the accompanying statement that the tightening cycle is near an end. We …
7th May 2025
NBP cuts by 50bp ... but easing cycle may be more limited than most expect The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 5.25%, rather than opt for a smaller 25bp cut, suggests a slightly more dovish balance on …
CNB cuts by 25bp, but easing cycle may now be over The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.50%, but we think that this may mark the end of its easing cycle. Our forecast for the policy rate to remain on hold at 3.50% over the …
Simion’s lead leaves Romania on the verge of a big political shift Far-right candidate George Simion emerged as the clear frontrunner in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled presidential election and is now the favourite to win the second round on 18 …
5th May 2025
This Rapid Response has been amended from our original response to correct the food CPI figure. Fall in inflation paves the way for May rate cut The larger-than-expected fall in Polish inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in April, is probably enough to tip the …
30th April 2025
Hungary contracts ahead of tariff impact The Q1 GDP data released out of Hungary and Czechia showed that momentum in both economies slowed at the start of this year, with Hungary suffering a renewed contraction. The risks to our below consensus full-year …
MNB to stay on hold as above-target inflation persists The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and despite downside risks to activity from US tariffs, we think its easing cycle will remain on pause throughout 2025. …
29th April 2025
Sentiment holds up well in the face of Trump’s tariffs The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provide a tentative sign that the impact of US tariffs on the region has been fairly contained so far. The …
Inflation rises but end of tightening cycle is near The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.5% y/y in the first half of April means that Copom will press ahead with a 50bp hike in the Selic rate at its next meeting in early May. But …
25th April 2025
CBR drops tightening bias, rate cuts likely in Q3 The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its policy rate on hold at 21.00% again today and dropped the language in its statement that further interest rate hikes are possible. With inflation nearing a peak, …
Leadership signals policy flexibility in the face of trade uncertainty The Politburo has just concluded its April meeting which, as usual, focused on economic affairs. The communique signalled that monetary policy easing is still on its way and that …
Inflation rises, but Banxico more focussed on weak economy The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in the first half of April, to 4.0% y/y, is unlikely to shift Banxico’s focus away from the weakness of the economy and we expect it to deliver another …
24th April 2025
The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 2.7% y/y in March will give the Reserve Bank more confidence that its easing cycle can resume. We expect a 25bp reduction to 7.25% at the next MPC meeting in May followed by a …
23rd April 2025
Odds of a May rate cut shorten The weaker-than-expected Polish industrial production and wage data for March have increased the probability that the central bank (NBP) will restart its easing cycle at its next meeting in May, but that decision will still …
22nd April 2025
CBRT signals tight policy here to stay The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to hike its one-week repo rate by 350bp, to 46.00%, formalises the emergency monetary tightening delivered last month and is a strong signal of commitment to a tight …
17th April 2025
