The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to cut its policy rate by 100bp today, to 20.00%, came as a dovish surprise, and we now think the policy rate will now end this year at 17.00% (18.00% previously). That said, demand-supply imbalances from the war suggest interest rates will need to stay in restrictive territory, so today’s decision hasn’t changed our views about the scale of easing further ahead.
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