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The US election next week is likely to have major ramifications for geopolitical ties, trade, and financial markets in the MENA region. (All our analysis on the impact of the US election on EMs can be found on our dedicated webpage here .) Attention in …
31st October 2024
Al-Sisi demands review with IMF Comments from Egypt’s President al-Sisi over the past week pushing back against the pace of reforms under the current IMF deal has alarmed investors a little, but the bigger picture is that Egypt’s economy is in a far …
24th October 2024
BRICS+ to meet with a notable absentee Next week’s BRICS+ summit in Russia is likely to focus on the group’s further expansion after Egypt and the UAE (along with several other countries) joined last year. Notably, however, Saudi Arabia – which was also …
17th October 2024
Saied’s second term could prove a messy one In a no shock result, Kais Saied secured a second term as Tunisia’s president by a landslide. His first five years in power were typified by a shift back to autocracy and shunning necessary reforms. The next …
10th October 2024
Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory attack on Tuesday. From a macro perspective, the key risk …
3rd October 2024
Is Saudi set to reverse its oil policy? Reports have emerged that officials in Saudi Arabia are set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, rather than try to prop up prices. Higher oil output will, mechanically, result in …
26th September 2024
PIF investment in Egypt: the first of many? Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has pledged to invest $5bn into Egypt in a further sign that March’s policy shift is attracting international attention. At the same time, this will help to put …
19th September 2024
OPEC+ roll over doesn’t stop the oil price slide After we published our last Weekly , OPEC+ released a statement confirming that the group would roll over current oil production cuts until 1 st December. It also included previous phrasing that it has the …
12th September 2024
Is OPEC+ backing itself into a corner again? The price of oil has slumped even further this week and is now not far off its lowest level in three years. With a potential end to the Libya crisis in sight and our expectation of global oil demand to stay …
5th September 2024
Libya’s oil shutdown could influence OPEC+ The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the loss of …
29th August 2024
Ceasefire seems a long way off Despite the US government’s efforts to push for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, a deal seems some way off. The economic spillovers from the war in Gaza have been largest for the economies of Egypt, …
22nd August 2024
Kuwait’s tax overhaul falls a little short… Governments in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have both stepped up reform efforts over the past week. Kuwait’s reforms are focused on the public finances, and diversifying revenues away from oil. Reports suggest that …
15th August 2024
Sell-off’s hit to oil likely to be reversed Fears of a US recession have rattled global financial markets earlier in the week, and those in the Middle East weren’t spared. We think the spillover into the oil market has gone too far, though, and it raises …
8th August 2024
Regional tensions rise after Israel strikes Israel’s assassination of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas officials this week in retaliation for the rocket strike on Israeli-occupied Golan Heights has left tensions on the brink of boiling over. An aggressive …
1st August 2024
Continuing blackouts in Egypt show need for a fix Egypt’s electricity blackouts have persisted this week and, while there is light at the end of the tunnel, the government needs to boost energy investments to avoid a repeat of power cuts in the coming …
25th July 2024
Trump sets out his stall for warmer Saudi ties Donald Trump has outlined his intentions to improve relations with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election. But potential tensions over the handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict mean that, for now, Saudi officials …
18th July 2024
The economic impact of Saudi’s new pension age New pension directives laid out in Saudi Arabia have raised the retirement age in the Kingdom. The potential boost to the size of the labour force could strengthen GDP growth over the coming decades. The …
11th July 2024
A facelift for Egypt’s cabinet, but no shift in policy Egypt’s cabinet was shaken up this week but the new faces are highly unlikely to diverge from the economic policy path their predecessors were on, particularly when it comes to the public finances. …
4th July 2024
Egypt needs to adapt to keep the lights on Daily blackouts in Egypt have returned as gas shortages intensify and, while the government can afford to spend its way out of the issue for now, climate risks require a permanent shift in strategy. Temperatures …
27th June 2024
Lebanon on verge of being drawn into the war Skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces have intensified, culminating in Israel’s approval of an “offensive” into Lebanon this week. Not only does this threaten to exacerbate Lebanon’s prolonged …
20th June 2024
Morocco: riding the EV wave Morocco’s domestic auto industry has boomed over the past decade and is drawing investment from major firms in Europe and China. With plans to more than double output in the coming years, the sector is likely to provide a …
13th June 2024
UAE emerges as clear winner from OPEC+ decision The decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production lower this year means that GDP growth across the Gulf will be a little weaker than we had previously expected. However, the UAE came away from the meeting the …
6th June 2024
Stick or twist for OPEC+ Oil markets are gearing up for Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting which looks set to be a close call on how the group decides to take forward oil policy. OPEC+ has reduced its oil output by 3.2mn bpd since October 2022, but oil prices have …
30th May 2024
US pulling Saudi back from China’s orbit US officials this week suggested that a mooted grand deal with Saudi Arabia could be signed off in the coming weeks. This would redraw how the Kingdom aligns itself in a fracturing global economy. Jake Sullivan, …
23rd May 2024
Saudi’s gigaprojects stick or twist moment Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week have added to the growing discourse of whether the Kingdom can afford, both literally and figuratively, to continue with its vast suite …
16th May 2024
Is the UAE set to butt heads with OPEC again? The UAE‘s announcement that its oil production capacity has been raised ahead of schedule provides further evidence of its desire to raise actual output. But with growing rumours that OPEC may hold off from …
9th May 2024
Is Saudi Arabia moving away from China’s orbit? Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are close to a new security pact would, if confirmed, cause us to re-evaluate our view of the Kingdom’s alignment in a fracturing global economy. Prior to the start of …
2nd May 2024
Stalling privatisation drive a blot on Egypt’s reforms Having previously pledged to reinvigorate its state privatisation drive, Egyptian officials have significantly pared back their targets. This could remain the one demerit on its IMF report card. …
25th April 2024
Gulf find itself in a bind if conflict escalates The ratcheting up of tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel over the past couple of weeks has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, though, it seems unlikely that the Gulf …
18th April 2024
How is Egypt’s policy shift one month on It’s now been just over a month since Egypt’s “ Super Wednesday ” policy shift and, while it is still early days, the signs so far are positive and this time might be different to past policy U-turns. After …
11th April 2024
The threat of an outright conflict between Iran and Israel is at its highest point since the war in Gaza began. A full-blown war would not only have major repercussions for Iran’s own economy, but the spillovers into oil markets could have a significant …
4th April 2024
Egypt policy shift to get final seal of approval Egypt’s recent policy shift has been met with a lot of optimism among investors but it will not be painless and economic growth will be sluggish this year and next. And there is a lot more work to do to …
28th March 2024
Egypt: appreciation for the CBE’s policy shift After the “Super Wednesday” devaluation on 6 th March, the pound has appreciated over the past week or so and it appears as though officials have (so far) stuck to their pledge to let the currency move more …
21st March 2024
Higher inflation a cost to Egypt’s policy shift The fall in the Egyptian pound last week has raised concerns of a fresh surge in inflation, which wasn’t helped by February’s strong reading. However, while we may see another acceleration in March, we think …
14th March 2024
The raft of policy reforms announced by the Egyptian authorities yesterday, including a devaluation of the pound and new IMF deal, has put the economy on a path out of its current crisis. There have been false dawns before, but we think that momentum is …
7th March 2024
Even with Ras el Hekma deal, Egypt needs the IMF Headlines in the past week have been dominated by Egypt’s deal to sell the Ras el Hekma project to the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, to provide crucial foreign currency inflows. But, even with this …
29th February 2024
Tunisia: threat of messy crisis and default builds Tunisia managed to meet a Eurobond repayment this week but only by draining its already-low FX reserves. In the meantime, steps were also taken towards deficit monetisation, taking Tunisia further down …
22nd February 2024
Saudi’s loose fiscal stance to continue (for now) Data released yesterday confirmed that Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit over 2023 as a whole and, as the government maintains high spending levels despite lower oil prices, the Kingdom will run larger …
15th February 2024
Bahrain taps bond market as repayments near This week, Bahrain became the latest emerging market to issue dollar bonds which will help it meet large upcoming debt repayments. But fiscal policy will need to be tightened in the coming years to put the …
8th February 2024
Why has the Saudi gov’t changed Aramco’s policy? Aramco announced this week that it received a directive from the Saudi state to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but we don’t think this is a sign that actual output will remain low for …
1st February 2024
Is Egypt setting the stage for ‘Super Thursday’? IMF officials have been in Egypt over the past week to discuss a new financing package and, while no details have filtered through, momentum is building fast and there’s a chance that all will be revealed …
25th January 2024
Egypt needs enhanced IMF deal urgently Egypt’s foreign currency woes remained in the spotlight this week, highlighting the importance of getting an enhanced IMF deal over the line in order to avoid a disorderly balance of payments crisis. This week …
18th January 2024
Egypt’s policy shift and IMF deal edging closer Meetings this week between Egypt, the IMF, and the US took place following the release of a draft economic plan, which points to the expansion of the current IMF deal and a renewed shift towards economic …
11th January 2024
Egypt tightening the purse strings as IMF deal nears In Egypt, 2024 started off with a raft of price hikes as officials seek to tighten fiscal policy and warm relations with the IMF ahead of an anticipated enhancement of the current deal. The increases …
4th January 2024
Red Sea crisis adds to Egypt’s external strains Attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea have prompted major shipping companies to reduce their traffic through the Suez Canal. This deals a blow to Egypt’s hard currency revenues when it desperately needs …
21st December 2023
Egypt: Year one of al-Sisi’s third term will be crucial Figures over the weekend showed that inflation in Egypt slowed but, with President al-Sisi all but confirmed to be re-elected, policy moves over the coming weeks will dictate how inflation develops …
14th December 2023
Egypt: aftermath of election to prove pivotal Next week Egyptians will head to the polls to vote in the presidential election and, while it is widely expected President al-Sisi will be re-elected, the vote could act as a trigger for policy moves that are …
7th December 2023
All eyes on Vienna and Dubai The UN’s annual climate conference, COP28, gets underway in Dubai today with thousands of delegates set to attend. But events in Vienna could take the spotlight. OPEC+’s delayed meeting is taking place as we speak and could …
30th November 2023
Tensions within OPEC+ rise as threat of cut looms OPEC+ was meant to be in the spotlight this weekend but, in a surprise move, the meeting has been delayed until Thursday. The slide in oil prices and the Israel-Hamas conflict suggest that output quotas …
23rd November 2023
Saudi’s new Civil Code another step to attract FDI In a month’s time, Saudi Arabia’s new Civil Code will come into force in a bid to further entice foreign investors to the Kingdom, but more is required to hit Vision 2030 targets. The Civil Code contains …
16th November 2023
