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Fresh Israel-Iran strike worries rattle oil markets Reports have surfaced that Israel is planning an imminent strike on Iran and/or its proxies in Iraq, prompting oil prices to jump over the past 24 hours. But there are reasons to think that any fallout …
12th June 2025
Saudi in the driving seat of OPEC+ aggressive shift OPEC+ this week agreed to another 411,000bpd hike to oil output for July and there’s little reason to think that the cartel’s leader, Saudi Arabia, will reverse course on oil policy anytime soon. After …
5th June 2025
China’s turn to woo the Gulf The GCC-ASEAN-China summit underway this week contained a lot of platitudes, but it doesn’t change our view that the Gulf’s geopolitical alignment is tilting away from China and towards the US. For China, the summit was an …
29th May 2025
Israel readying strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities? Rumours that Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities suggest that conflict in the region could escalate. But there are reasons to think that the fallout for the oil market, and therefore the Gulf …
22nd May 2025
The Gulf’s trillion dollar shopping list Headlines have been dominated this week by US President Trump’s dealmaking in the Gulf, striking nearly $1trn of potential deals for investment and trade over the coming years. There’s a big question mark about …
15th May 2025
OPEC+ shifts tack to recapture market share The decision by OPEC+ to deliver another punchy oil output hike in June was not too much of a surprise, but it confirms that the group are shifting tack to a more aggressive policy in order to recapture market …
8th May 2025
Saudi pushing for a more aggressive OPEC oil hike It already looked like next week’s OPEC+ meeting could see another plan outlined to hike to oil output from the group in June. But if anything, supply could be raised further given signals from Saudi …
1st May 2025
Egypt’s draft budget points to more tightening Egypt’s Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk presented the draft FY2025/26 Budget to parliament this week and reaffirmed the turn to austerity, including efforts to raise taxation and cut subsidies, all of which …
24th April 2025
Gulf reins in oil overproducers Recent moves to hike OPEC+ oil output quotas but make overproducers cut production suggests that the Gulf economies are taking a firmer line on regaining global oil market share. But fresh falls in oil prices could scupper …
17th April 2025
The US-China trade war and OPEC+’s surprise oil output hike has sent oil prices tumbling and are now below breakeven fiscal and external levels for the many Gulf oil producers, notably Saudi Arabia. If oil prices stay low or even fall further, governments …
10th April 2025
MENA can’t escape Trump’s trade war The Executive Order signed by US President Trump yesterday brought a flat 10% tariff on all countries’ exports to the US with an additional reciprocal rate for some economies. While the Middle East may be less …
3rd April 2025
Egypt: a wider budget deficit, but tight fiscal stance Egypt’s cabinet approved the FY2025/26 Budget this week which showed that a primary surplus will be maintained, reiterating that policymakers will stick to the tight fiscal stance that will help to …
27th March 2025
Kuwait’s debt law marks a new era for fiscal policy A new public debt law is set to be passed in Kuwait in the near future allowing for the government to finance budget deficits more sustainably. In 2017, Kuwait’s authorisation to issue or refinance debt …
20th March 2025
Egypt is now twelve months into its orthodox policy shift and, so far, the authorities have moved in the right direction towards restoring macro stability. But there is still work to do in the next phase of reforms that is needed to unlock stronger GDP …
13th March 2025
OPEC+ has now confirmed that it will finally begin to unwind its oil production cuts from the start of next month, providing a gradual boost to Gulf oil sectors and GDP growth. But with oil prices sliding and Aramco reducing its dividend, questions are …
6th March 2025
Saied’s unorthodoxy keeps Tunisia on risky path Tunisia’s President Kais Saied has resumed his attacks on the central bank, Banque Centrale de Tunisie (BCT), and seems set on having the state take over the Bank’s responsibilities. We’ve long warned that …
27th February 2025
Egypt’s gas recovery still has a long way to go Egypt’s gas sector appears to be heading towards a resumption of activity that should alleviate domestic shortages and strains in the balance of payments. Last year, Egypt’s economy was blighted by domestic …
20th February 2025
Gaza will remain key sticking point for MENA President Donald Trump’s doubling down on the future takeover of Gaza and displacement of the Palestinian population has continued to spark backlash from governments across the Middle East and could derail …
13th February 2025
We’d previously argued that President Trump was likely to try to bring the MENA region into the US’s sphere of influence, but controversial statements on the future of Gaza have brought that into question. In a joint press conference with Israeli Prime …
6th February 2025
Will OPEC+ heed Trump’s calls on oil output? Last Thursday’s comments from President Trump for OPEC+ to reduce the cost of oil has put some downward pressure on prices in the past week. OPEC+ is unlikely to change its existing plans for oil output (to …
30th January 2025
Saudi-US relations already on a stronger footing Over the past year, Saudi Arabia’s shift toward China appears to have been on pause as it awaited to see the victor of the US presidential race. With Donald Trump now back in the White House, there are …
23rd January 2025
Gaza ceasefire: economic spillovers to fade Israel and Hamas provisionally agreed to a ceasefire deal on Wednesday. Israel’s PM Netanyahu today has accused Hamas of reneging on part of the deal. But if this can be overcome, it represents a major …
16th January 2025
Saudi’s bumper debt sale now a regular event Saudi Arabia’s National Debt Management Centre (NDMC) outlined its 2025 Borrowing Plan this week and the government has already got its debt issuance in motion. With budget deficits likely over the coming …
9th January 2025
Saudi inflation to fall back over 2025 Saudi inflation rose further in November but there were tentative signs that some of the recent drivers of higher price pressures are fading and we expect the headline rate to drop back towards 1% by end-2025. The …
19th December 2024
OPEC+ alters Gulf’s economic outlook Following our previous Weekly , OPEC+ announced that it would be pushing back the start date of when it will unwind oil production cuts to April 2025 and that the pace of increase will be slower than we had previously …
12th December 2024
Syria’s rebel advance tests MENA’s geopolitics Over the past week, Syrian rebel forces have retaken significant amounts of territory from President Bashar al-Assad’s regime with little resistance so far. It’s unclear whether the rebels will make further …
5th December 2024
Economic spillovers of regional conflict may fade The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. For Egypt and Jordan, among the countries most directly affected by …
28th November 2024
Egypt’s policy agenda shifts to long term reforms With Egypt’s macroeconomic stability restored, officials are starting to turn their attention to longer term reforms and number one on the list appears to be reinvigorating the stalled privatisation drive. …
21st November 2024
Stronger inflation rules out rate cut before end-24 The third successive rise in Egypt’s headline inflation rate has all but quashed hopes that the central bank will cut interest rates before the end of this year. But, as we have long argued, a sharp …
14th November 2024
The victory for Donald Trump in the US election will have major ramifications for the Middle East. (You can read all of our US election coverage here .) For the most part, the Middle East should be shielded from any direct impact if Trump pushes ahead …
7th November 2024
The US election next week is likely to have major ramifications for geopolitical ties, trade, and financial markets in the MENA region. (All our analysis on the impact of the US election on EMs can be found on our dedicated webpage here .) Attention in …
31st October 2024
Al-Sisi demands review with IMF Comments from Egypt’s President al-Sisi over the past week pushing back against the pace of reforms under the current IMF deal has alarmed investors a little, but the bigger picture is that Egypt’s economy is in a far …
24th October 2024
BRICS+ to meet with a notable absentee Next week’s BRICS+ summit in Russia is likely to focus on the group’s further expansion after Egypt and the UAE (along with several other countries) joined last year. Notably, however, Saudi Arabia – which was also …
17th October 2024
Saied’s second term could prove a messy one In a no shock result, Kais Saied secured a second term as Tunisia’s president by a landslide. His first five years in power were typified by a shift back to autocracy and shunning necessary reforms. The next …
10th October 2024
Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory attack on Tuesday. From a macro perspective, the key risk …
3rd October 2024
Is Saudi set to reverse its oil policy? Reports have emerged that officials in Saudi Arabia are set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, rather than try to prop up prices. Higher oil output will, mechanically, result in …
26th September 2024
PIF investment in Egypt: the first of many? Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has pledged to invest $5bn into Egypt in a further sign that March’s policy shift is attracting international attention. At the same time, this will help to put …
19th September 2024
OPEC+ roll over doesn’t stop the oil price slide After we published our last Weekly , OPEC+ released a statement confirming that the group would roll over current oil production cuts until 1 st December. It also included previous phrasing that it has the …
12th September 2024
Is OPEC+ backing itself into a corner again? The price of oil has slumped even further this week and is now not far off its lowest level in three years. With a potential end to the Libya crisis in sight and our expectation of global oil demand to stay …
5th September 2024
Libya’s oil shutdown could influence OPEC+ The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the loss of …
29th August 2024
Ceasefire seems a long way off Despite the US government’s efforts to push for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, a deal seems some way off. The economic spillovers from the war in Gaza have been largest for the economies of Egypt, …
22nd August 2024
Kuwait’s tax overhaul falls a little short… Governments in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have both stepped up reform efforts over the past week. Kuwait’s reforms are focused on the public finances, and diversifying revenues away from oil. Reports suggest that …
15th August 2024
Sell-off’s hit to oil likely to be reversed Fears of a US recession have rattled global financial markets earlier in the week, and those in the Middle East weren’t spared. We think the spillover into the oil market has gone too far, though, and it raises …
8th August 2024
Regional tensions rise after Israel strikes Israel’s assassination of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas officials this week in retaliation for the rocket strike on Israeli-occupied Golan Heights has left tensions on the brink of boiling over. An aggressive …
1st August 2024
Continuing blackouts in Egypt show need for a fix Egypt’s electricity blackouts have persisted this week and, while there is light at the end of the tunnel, the government needs to boost energy investments to avoid a repeat of power cuts in the coming …
25th July 2024
Trump sets out his stall for warmer Saudi ties Donald Trump has outlined his intentions to improve relations with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election. But potential tensions over the handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict mean that, for now, Saudi officials …
18th July 2024
The economic impact of Saudi’s new pension age New pension directives laid out in Saudi Arabia have raised the retirement age in the Kingdom. The potential boost to the size of the labour force could strengthen GDP growth over the coming decades. The …
11th July 2024
A facelift for Egypt’s cabinet, but no shift in policy Egypt’s cabinet was shaken up this week but the new faces are highly unlikely to diverge from the economic policy path their predecessors were on, particularly when it comes to the public finances. …
4th July 2024
Egypt needs to adapt to keep the lights on Daily blackouts in Egypt have returned as gas shortages intensify and, while the government can afford to spend its way out of the issue for now, climate risks require a permanent shift in strategy. Temperatures …
27th June 2024
Lebanon on verge of being drawn into the war Skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces have intensified, culminating in Israel’s approval of an “offensive” into Lebanon this week. Not only does this threaten to exacerbate Lebanon’s prolonged …
20th June 2024
