The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. But the economic spillovers for Egypt and Jordan are likely to persist for some time. Elsewhere, the finalised 2025 Budget in Saudi Arabia confirmed our suspicions that there will be cuts to capital expenditure as the government recalibrates its priorities away from gigaprojects. Finally, rumours suggest that OPEC+ will once again push back the timing of oil output rises. But prolonging lower levels of output is unsustainable. It’s a question of when not if OPEC+ raises production.
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