The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening cycle to begin in Q1 – and that it will be more aggressive than most expect. Elsewhere, Marco Rubio’s nomination to be Donald Trump’s Secretary of State provides further signals of a stronger pro-Israel/anti-Iran stance in the US, which could lead to a stronger enforcement of sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. But with OPEC+ on the verge of unwinding oil production cuts, this should more than offset any impact on global oil supply.
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