How might the Gulf respond to the slip in oil prices?

President Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s surprise oil output hike has sent oil prices tumbling over the past two weeks and, despite a recovery yesterday, are now below breakeven fiscal and external levels for the many Gulf oil producers, notably Saudi Arabia. If oil prices stay low or even fall further, governments may be forced to tighten fiscal policy more aggressively and/or reassess oil output policy.

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