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Somewhat paradoxically, climate-driven shifts in tourist patterns could help to smooth the seasonal peaks seen in summer destinations, and some countries – particularly in northern Europe – will become more attractive places to visit. However, there is a …
1st July 2025
A number of AI-linked redundancies have hit the headlines recently, reigniting fears that the adoption of AI will lead to a surge in unemployment. We continue to think that fears of a big long-term rise in “technological unemployment” are misplaced. While …
30th June 2025
As time marches on, the once distant threat of demographic pressures for many countries, especially those in Europe, is fast becoming a reality. This adds to the other pressures on the public finances, such as higher defence spending, and increases the …
20th June 2025
The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced than we’d previously thought (rather than skewed to the …
13th June 2025
President Trump’s claim that China has agreed to supply the US with “ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS… UP FRONT” might seem to draw a line under concerns about supply shortages and production shutdowns. But restrictions could be dialled back up. And as we set …
12th June 2025
The abolition of Vietnam’s controversial two-child policy will not lead to a sharp rise in the number of children being born, and will have only a small economic impact. Vietnam’s government announced earlier this week that it was scrapping its two-child …
5th June 2025
Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive demographics and scope for continued productivity gains. So …
28th May 2025
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
13th May 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
3rd April 2025
Prabowo Subianto came into office in Indonesia in October pledging to raise economic growth to 8%, up from around the 5% rate it has been stuck at recently. However, the policy changes he has introduced so far risk causing trend growth to slow. One of …
5th March 2025
India’s outbound tourism market is poised to become one of the world’s largest over the coming years. The Maldives and the UAE are arguably the biggest beneficiaries, though Oman and Thailand are well placed to take advantage too. Other EMs – particularly …
27th January 2025
Artificial intelligence (AI) is still not being used very widely outside of the ICT sector. But we remain confident that, in time, it has the potential to be used across all sectors and industries. Surveys of firms in the US and EU show that AI usage is …
19th November 2024
A year ago, we developed our proprietary AI Economic Impact Index, which ranks major economies according to their ability to realise the benefits of AI. (See our CE Spotlight on the economic and market impact of AI here .) We have updated that index, and …
11th October 2024
This summer’s falls in the share prices of companies involved in producing AI chips have prompted some to question whether the AI revolution will be quite the game-changer it has been built up to be. But it is important to separate the impact of AI on …
26th September 2024
Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic weakness. As long as the process is gradual, this …
3rd September 2024
In its new urbanisation plan, China’s government is setting its targets low . The goal of reaching a 70% urbanisation rate in five years’ time could be met with far smaller increases in the urban population than have been seen in the past few years. And …
2nd August 2024
In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact some of the forces boosting equilibrium rates seem to …
30th July 2024
As well as adversely impacting the growth of the workforce, ageing populations may also have a small negative impact on productivity. There is plenty of scope for this to be offset by a positive boost to productivity from the adoption of AI. However, …
29th July 2024
We think the capital market reforms announced as part of China’s Third Plenum won’t be enough to reinvigorate China’s equities, which we still think will provide disappointing long-run returns. It’s been a tough few days for China’s equities, which had …
26th July 2024
The downward revisions to global population growth in the UN’s latest projections won’t have a major bearing on our long-term GDP growth forecasts. That’s because a lot of the revision was driven by lower population projections in China, where we had …
16th July 2024
Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have struggled. We expect this divergence to continue over …
10th July 2024
India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential universal tariff on all US imports under a second Trump …
16th May 2024
Increased immigration would be the easiest way for Singapore to offset a decline in the working age population. However, such a move would be politically controversial, and deciding how many foreign workers to allow into the country will be one of the …
14th May 2024
The slump in the yen has resulted in Germany overtaking Japan as the world’s 3 rd largest economy at market exchange rates. We expect Japan to overtake Germany yet again in the early 2030s as the yen strengthens and Japan benefits from higher productivity …
9th April 2024
There are so many uncertainties that it remains unwise to get carried away by the potential economic boost from the latest wave of weight loss drugs. Nonetheless, if use of the drugs continues to grow rapidly, it could ultimately give a significant boost …
14th March 2024
EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs with rapid population growth, the potential to develop …
11th March 2024
The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy consumption will increase markedly, fossil fuel usage is …
21st December 2023
Most major DMs need to shrink their primary budget deficits significantly and, for various reasons, most are likely to find it hard to do so. This will exacerbate growing worries about fiscal sustainability. Fiscal deficits increased significantly in …
20th December 2023
In this Global Economics Update , we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary policy mean that the biggest risks relate to central …
30th November 2023
The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous financial crises that have been caused by sharp moves in …
4th October 2023
Investment in the green transition is unlikely to rise quickly enough this decade to help achieve net zero by 2050. But a greater focus on areas including renewables and electric vehicles will still probably push up investment’s share of global GDP by …
25th September 2023
The G20 summit which concluded yesterday in New Delhi supported our view that the global economy is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, and that India still leans to the former. While the statement was light on explicit policies, calls to increase …
11th September 2023
China’s push to develop the BRICS bloc into a geo-political counterweight to the G7 is likely to be thwarted by the competing interests and priorities of other member states. Nonetheless, positioning ahead of this week’s BRICS summit will provide some …
21st August 2023
EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. India will become the world’s third-largest economy before 2030. More generally, EMs with rapid population growth, with potential to develop into manufacturing …
26th June 2023
A series of high-level diplomatic meetings this week have raised hopes that strains in US-China relations will start to ease. But the politics of fragmentation was never likely to proceed in a linear direction. And even if there is a thaw in political …
20th June 2023
Note: We’re talking inflation and the BOJ, slowing Indian growth, and regional monetary easing in our Asia Drop-In on Thursday, 22 nd June. Register now . The female participation rate has surged over the past decade but more favourable attitudes among …
19th June 2023
How low Fed and ECB policy rates will go, when they are eventually normalised, is at least as important for financial markets as the precise timings of the ends of tightening cycles, in our view. We think both central banks will cut deeper than investors …
16th June 2023
In theory, there is plenty of scope for those countries set to age most rapidly over the coming few decades to cushion the impact on their workforces via migration and a rise in both female and older participation rates. However, in many cases, this will …
4th May 2023
The physical risks facing commercial property are substantial with extreme weather events like floods and wildfires set to increase in both the US and Europe over the coming decades. Property markets have yet to fully price these in, especially in areas …
21st April 2023
The economic impact of the Oxford malaria vaccine, which has now been approved by regulators in Ghana and Nigeria, will depend on the pace and breadth of the rollout and how long immunity lasts for. But it could potentially have a large positive impact on …
20th April 2023
While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of whether more financial institutions run into trouble, …
20th March 2023
The numerous “plans for growth” that have been announced by the Government, the Opposition, and various commentators in recent months vary in their analytical rigour but all miss one crucial point: many of the reforms required to lift the UK’s pitifully …
9th March 2023
The current economic downturn will mean that short-to-medium term property performance is under-par. But over a longer horizon, we expect real estate returns to reassert their traditional position somewhere between bonds and equities. Last year was an …
2nd March 2023
While it is in America’s strategic interests to build stronger economic ties with allies to counter China’s growth, its protectionist tendencies could undermine those goals and blunt the effectiveness of its interventionist foreign policy. Our work on …
22nd February 2023
The process of “global fracturing” that we outlined in our annual Spotlight series last year will remain the dominant macro theme for the next decade. But speculation that it will result in the rise of a “petroyuan” on a scale sufficient to challenge …
17th January 2023
Although valuation premia in certain parts of the US stock market shrank significantly last year, we think there is still some room for this to continue in the coming decade and weigh on their relative performance. To re-cap, there was a marked reversal …
6th January 2023
We suspect the underperformance of US equities that has accompanied the US dollar’s slump so far this month will become a feature from mid-2023, as the currency eventually comes under sustained pressure. Since the end of October, MSCI’s USA Index has …
16th November 2022
Malaysia heads to the polls on Saturday for a general election which, if the latest opinion polls are correct, will lead to a further period of unstable and fractured politics. This reduces the chances of meaningful economic reforms being passed and …
Although relatively low equity valuations sometimes point to a greater chance of outsized returns over longer time horizons, we do not think that this is the case for China’s stock market. After all, we expect Chinese companies to face several long-term …
20th October 2022
Central banks have the tools to deal with liquidity crises arising from rising interest rates and falling asset prices. Instead, the bigger threat is that higher interest rates produce large and simultaneous falls in asset prices that threaten the …
11th October 2022
