EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. India will become the world’s third-largest economy before 2030. More generally, EMs with rapid population growth, with potential to develop into manufacturing hubs (including through friend-shoring) or that stand to benefit from the global energy transition will jump up the league table of GDP rankings. The sting in the tail is that, at an aggregate level, income convergence with DMs will be slower than it has been in the past couple of decades.
In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Markets Economics Update to clients of our Long-run and India Services.
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