In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary policy mean that the biggest risks relate to central banks. On the upside, previous interest rate hikes might fail to take a significant toll as many borrowers sit out the effects of the tightening cycle. But on the downside, policymakers might keep interest rates too high for too long and finally spark a labour markets downturn.
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