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The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced than we’d previously thought (rather than skewed to the …
13th June 2025
President Trump’s claim that China has agreed to supply the US with “ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS… UP FRONT” might seem to draw a line under concerns about supply shortages and production shutdowns. But restrictions could be dialled back up. And as we set …
12th June 2025
The abolition of Vietnam’s controversial two-child policy will not lead to a sharp rise in the number of children being born, and will have only a small economic impact. Vietnam’s government announced earlier this week that it was scrapping its two-child …
5th June 2025
Many central banks, especially in DMs, appear unconvinced about the need for retail central bank digital currencies CBDCs (rCBDCs) and so a big revolution in the monetary system seems unlikely. There is greater enthusiasm for wholesale CBDCs (wCBDCs), …
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, …
30th May 2025
Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive demographics and scope for continued productivity gains. So …
28th May 2025
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. Germany’s historic shift to looser fiscal policy will give the …
23rd May 2025
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. Most euro-zone governments look set to continue running large budget …
14th May 2025
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
13th May 2025
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. There has been an increase in optimism about the EU in recent months …
12th May 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
3rd April 2025
It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
25th March 2025
The rise in defence spending that looks likely in many countries over the next few years will boost demand and output, albeit by less than the headline-grabbing figures might suggest. Meanwhile, higher defence spending could give a significant boost to …
13th March 2025
Prabowo Subianto came into office in Indonesia in October pledging to raise economic growth to 8%, up from around the 5% rate it has been stuck at recently. However, the policy changes he has introduced so far risk causing trend growth to slow. One of …
5th March 2025
President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still expect AI to drive a revival in productivity growth …
25th February 2025
The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the macroeconomic implications will depend on the features of …
18th February 2025
India’s outbound tourism market is poised to become one of the world’s largest over the coming years. The Maldives and the UAE are arguably the biggest beneficiaries, though Oman and Thailand are well placed to take advantage too. Other EMs – particularly …
27th January 2025
The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This fall was in part …
17th January 2025
Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its traditional allies could each reshape supply chains and …
7th January 2025
Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 29th November 2024. We publish more detailed explanation of our views in our annual Long Run Asset …
3rd December 2024
Artificial intelligence (AI) is still not being used very widely outside of the ICT sector. But we remain confident that, in time, it has the potential to be used across all sectors and industries. Surveys of firms in the US and EU show that AI usage is …
19th November 2024
A year ago, we developed our proprietary AI Economic Impact Index, which ranks major economies according to their ability to realise the benefits of AI. (See our CE Spotlight on the economic and market impact of AI here .) We have updated that index, and …
11th October 2024
This summer’s falls in the share prices of companies involved in producing AI chips have prompted some to question whether the AI revolution will be quite the game-changer it has been built up to be. But it is important to separate the impact of AI on …
26th September 2024
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say Vision 2030 should be dubbed a failure. But officials …
23rd September 2024
Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic weakness. As long as the process is gradual, this …
3rd September 2024
In its new urbanisation plan, China’s government is setting its targets low . The goal of reaching a 70% urbanisation rate in five years’ time could be met with far smaller increases in the urban population than have been seen in the past few years. And …
2nd August 2024
In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact some of the forces boosting equilibrium rates seem to …
30th July 2024
As well as adversely impacting the growth of the workforce, ageing populations may also have a small negative impact on productivity. There is plenty of scope for this to be offset by a positive boost to productivity from the adoption of AI. However, …
29th July 2024
We think the capital market reforms announced as part of China’s Third Plenum won’t be enough to reinvigorate China’s equities, which we still think will provide disappointing long-run returns. It’s been a tough few days for China’s equities, which had …
26th July 2024
The downward revisions to global population growth in the UN’s latest projections won’t have a major bearing on our long-term GDP growth forecasts. That’s because a lot of the revision was driven by lower population projections in China, where we had …
16th July 2024
Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have struggled. We expect this divergence to continue over …
10th July 2024
There is huge uncertainty about whether fertility rates have reached a floor in those countries with the lowest rates. But even if they start to rise again, it is almost unavoidable that a rising number of countries will experience falling populations …
24th June 2024
The metals-intensive nature of green technologies will add to demand for a host of industrial and battery metals, with green demand for copper and aluminium likely to grow twice as quickly as traditional demand for both metals has in the past. That said, …
23rd May 2024
India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential universal tariff on all US imports under a second Trump …
16th May 2024
This interactive dashboard presents long-run total return forecasts for 22 headline indices covered on our Asset Allocation service. These are expressed in local-currency, USD, EUR, and GBP terms. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this …
Increased immigration would be the easiest way for Singapore to offset a decline in the working age population. However, such a move would be politically controversial, and deciding how many foreign workers to allow into the country will be one of the …
14th May 2024
You can use the "Table of Contents" feature, found on the top right of the webpage, to navigate this publication quickly. Summary: The rally in equities over the past year or so, driven in no small part by hype around AI, has left stock markets looking …
24th April 2024
The slump in the yen has resulted in Germany overtaking Japan as the world’s 3 rd largest economy at market exchange rates. We expect Japan to overtake Germany yet again in the early 2030s as the yen strengthens and Japan benefits from higher productivity …
9th April 2024
One of the key problems for countries with ageing populations is how to tackle the associated fiscal costs. Those countries which have a good record for structural reform and/or scope to raise taxes should be able to mitigate or absorb those costs. But …
26th March 2024
Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall GDP will probably be larger than any single economy bar …
21st March 2024
There are so many uncertainties that it remains unwise to get carried away by the potential economic boost from the latest wave of weight loss drugs. Nonetheless, if use of the drugs continues to grow rapidly, it could ultimately give a significant boost …
14th March 2024
EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs with rapid population growth, the potential to develop …
11th March 2024
The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and South Africa that are endowed with the raw materials …
4th March 2024
The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in structural decline, we expect global growth to slow …
20th February 2024
Although the recent transition to a higher interest rate climate has not caused any lasting or systemic financial flare ups, it is probably too soon to sound the all-clear. And while a higher interest rate climate in the medium-term will reduce …
8th February 2024
The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy consumption will increase markedly, fossil fuel usage is …
21st December 2023
Most major DMs need to shrink their primary budget deficits significantly and, for various reasons, most are likely to find it hard to do so. This will exacerbate growing worries about fiscal sustainability. Fiscal deficits increased significantly in …
20th December 2023
In this Global Economics Update , we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary policy mean that the biggest risks relate to central …
30th November 2023
During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
16th November 2023
Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 1st November 2023. Our latest projections have been influenced by the recent body of work that we’ve done …
2nd November 2023
