EM winners and losers from the green transition

The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and South Africa that are endowed with the raw materials that are key inputs into cleaner technology. And as the global economy fragments, the rush to secure critical supplies could mean that other EMs also benefit. India and Mexico stand out as potential beneficiaries from Western investment in alternative suppliers of green technology. North Africa is well placed to develop solar and wind power and could benefit from both Chinese and Western investment as it straddles the political divide.