CBE delivers smaller cut as disinflation (temporarily) stalls The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut its overnight deposit rate by a smaller-than-expected 100bp today, to 24.00%. But as inflation continues to ease over the coming months, we still think …
22nd May 2025
The passage of Donald Trump’s ‘one, big beautiful bill’ through the House of Representatives today has done little to calm nerves in the bond market, which had already been frayed by Moody’s recent decision to downgrade the US’ sovereign credit rating and …
The latest flash PMIs point to weak activity and a softening of price pressures in advanced economies outside the US. But the surveys suggest that tariffs are already having an inflationary impact in the US. Our estimate of the weighted average of the …
Transaction activity weakens again The further decline in existing home sales in April suggests that elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty are keeping buyers on the sidelines. Things could go from bad to worse over the next few months, with the …
Overview – Inflation has fallen further towards central banks’ targets and we expect it to remain subdued across most of the world. Tariffs will cause a temporary uplift in the US. But elsewhere, their economic drag will add to the disinflationary effects …
Israel readying strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities? Rumours that Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities suggest that conflict in the region could escalate. But there are reasons to think that the fallout for the oil market, and therefore the Gulf …
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2025) …
Our View: The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have lost momentum over the course of 2025 and, while the region is relatively insulated from US tariffs, the risks to our growth forecasts have generally shifted lower this month. Some central banks …
We have just returned from three days of client meetings in Europe where the biggest topics of interest were US tariffs, Germany’s fiscal stimulus, risks to public finances (including in France) and our recent work on the future of Europe . This Update …
India’s economy is emerging from its soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy. We’re expecting a further 50bp of cuts to the repo …
Banxico looks set for another cut despite rise in inflation The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in the first half of May, to 4.2% y/y, was driven in large part by non-core components and is unlikely to sway Banxico’s …
Despite the latest setback in the S&P 500, we are revising back up our end-2025 forecast for the index in response to the de-escalation of the trade war albeit to a lower level of 6,250 than the projection of 7,000 we had before “Liberation Day”. We are …
A tariff-driven resurgence in inflation will likely keep the Fed from cutting this year, keeping mortgage rates near 7.0%. Some relief may come in 2026 and 2027 as rates drop back to 6.5%. Nonetheless, with affordability still stretched, we expect …
Small boost from tariff front-running not enough to stop economy stalling This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The euro-zone’s flash PMIs for May suggest that manufacturing output continues to be supported by the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Weak economy helping to reduce upside inflation risks Despite the modest rebound in the composite activity PMI in May, at face value it is consistent with the bumper 0.7% q/q …
Asia Chart Pack (May 2025) …
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2025) …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Disappointing borrowing figures highlight Chancellor’s lack of wiggle room April’s public finances figures showed that despite the boost from the rise in employers’ National …
With housing affordability still extremely stretched, we expect house price growth to remain muted even as mortgage rates are set to fall further. However, there’s more scope for dwellings prices to rise in the smaller capital cities, while apartment …
PMIs point to a cooling economy The ongoing weakness in activity, coupled with softer price pressures, will keep the Bank of Japan in wait and watch mode in the near term. According to today’s flash estimate, Japan’s composite PMI fell from 51.2 in April …
Output growth slows, inflationary pressures ease The step-down in business activity this month, combined with signs of easing price pressures, supports our view that the RBA’s easing cycle has further to run. According to today’s flash estimate, the …
Debate over the end of US equity exceptionalism had quietened over the past month amid a historic rally, but with US assets selling off today debate may reignite. Our sense is that US stocks will hold up well against their peers over the rest of the year. …
21st May 2025
We will be hosting a Drop-In at 3pm BST to discuss the key takeaways from the Budget and to answer your questions. Register here . South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s third attempt at delivering the 2025 Budget should have enough support …
The near-term outlook for Canada is a little bleak. After a solid first quarter, we expect GDP growth to be muted as the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come weighs on exports, consumer spending and investment. Employment is likely to decline …
The low public support for (left-wing) incumbents in many of Latin America’s largest economies, taken together with weak public finances, suggests that the wave of the upcoming elections could act as a catalyst for a rebound in (beaten up) financial …
The lack of an income stream makes it notoriously hard to value gold objectively. And while the price of gold relative to other assets – such as silver, oil and equities – is often used to assess the fair value of gold, structural changes over time can …
Given the widespread public anger toward the impeached former president Yoon Suk Yeol of the People’s Power Party (PPP), following his botched attempt at declaring martial law, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (DP) appears poised to become Korea’s …
Core inflation in India rose to an 18-month high in April, but there are reasons to think that this overstates the extent to which the economy is running into capacity constraints. And with headline inflation at a multi-year low, further policy easing …
The proposed 5% US tax on remittance outflows would have a particularly large negative impact on Central American economies such as Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador. Remittance flows could plausibly drop by around 1% of GDP in these countries. And …
Inflation stays low, but inflation target change may keep SARB on hold The rise in South Africa’s headline inflation to 2.8% y/y still left it below the lower bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range and, ordinarily, would make us more confident that …
Easing cycle to be gradual Bank Indonesia today cut interest rates by 25bps for the first time since January, and we expect further easing over the coming months. Today’s decision to cut the policy rate from 5.75% to 5.50% was predicted by 20 out of the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. More than one-off rises The bigger-than-expected jump in CPI inflation in April suggests that the persistence of inflation is a bit stronger and/or businesses are passing on more …
The RBNZ is all but certain to cut its cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, at its meeting ending on 28 th May. With the recovery showing signs of faltering, the labour market remaining weak, and underlying inflation continuing to fall, we expect the Bank to …
Exports slump as US auto tariffs kick in With US tariffs weighing on Japanese exports, net trade will continue to act as a drag on activity in the near term. The annual increase in export values slowed from 4% in March to 2% in April. The slowdown in …
The budget reconciliation bill currently working its way through the House of Representatives, which includes a permanent extension of the original Trump tax cuts plus cut-down versions of his campaign pledges, should be mostly offset by the additional …
20th May 2025
We see dimmer prospects for oil prices over the next year or so. But we think that will keep being a sideshow for US equity and bond markets. Admittedly, there has been a sizeable effect on the share prices of US energy companies in general, which is …
Overview – UK commercial property is relatively well insulated from the direct impact of US tariffs, and some sectors may even see small benefits. Rental growth has also held up better than expected. But with increased uncertainty weighing on economic …
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start …
We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs will become permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. A recession should be avoided, provided Congress can quickly redirect the tariff …
German office rents made stronger than expected gains in 2025 Q1. But not all markets were moving in line, with Frankfurt’s buoyancy a stark contrast to other cities. While that suggests risks remain on the upside in the near term, we still expect overall …
Rates on hold with CBN in wait-and-see mode The Central Bank of Nigeria left its policy rate on hold at 27.50% today and, with the disinflation progressing slowly and concerns that low oil prices will put downward pressure on the naira, it looks like it …
Sharp drop in headline rate masks hot underlying inflation The removal of the carbon tax sent energy prices tumbling in April, pushing headline inflation below the 2% target. More concerningly, the Bank’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures …
Despite the jump in US tariffs this year, China’s exports of the “New Three” reached a record high in April. This was mainly driven by increased exports to non-US markets, such as the EU. Looking ahead, this trend will probably continue as the impact of …
Credit growth in the UAE has boomed, fuelling a sharp rise in property prices, particularly in Dubai. Prices are now at risk of a correction which, in the past, has fed into banking and debt worries in the UAE. But there are reasons to think that banks …
When the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25bp at its meeting today, it signalled greater confidence that it had brought inflation under control, while sounding increasingly concerned that global developments would bear down the domestic economy. …
RBA cuts by 25bp, leaves the door open for further easing With the Bank growing increasingly concerned about downside risks to the economy, there is a good chance that it will cut rates further than we are currently anticipating this cycle. The RBA’s …
PBOC’s easing will confer only marginal benefits Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) probably won’t be the last this year. But rate cuts are likely to remain modest as the PBOC appears to think they could hinder …
