Home sales to drop to record lows - Capital Economics
US Housing

Home sales to drop to record lows

US Housing Market Outlook
Written by Matthew Pointon

The disruption caused by the coronavirus will lead to unprecedented falls in housing market activity. We expect home sales will drop by 50% q/q in the second quarter, single-family housing starts will see the largest quarterly fall since records began in 1959 and house price growth will drop to -4% by the start of 2021. Pent-up demand from the spring buying season, and record low mortgage rates, will help activity recover in the second half of year, but we doubt all the drop in sales and starts will be made up. Rental growth will turn negative for the first time since the financial crisis, and a rise in yields will push total apartment returns down to around -5% by the end of the year.

  • Overview – The disruption caused by the coronavirus will lead to unprecedented falls in housing market activity. We expect home sales will drop by 50% q/q in the second quarter, single-family housing starts will see the largest quarterly fall since records began in 1959 and house price growth will drop to -4% by the start of 2021. Pent-up demand from the spring buying season, and record low mortgage rates, will help activity recover in the second half of year, but we doubt all the drop in sales and starts will be made up. Rental growth will turn negative for the first time since the financial crisis, and a rise in yields will push total apartment returns down to around -5% by the end of the year.
  • Economic Backdrop – As a result of the coronavirus and the containment measures put in place to constrain its spread, we now anticipate an unprecedented 40% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP, with the unemployment rate spiking to between 15% and 20% within a few months.
  • Homeowner Market: Valuation, Affordability & Activity – The disruption from the coronavirus means home sales will collapse. While uncertain, we expect a drop of around 50% q/q in the second quarter. Pent-up demand from the spring selling season and record low mortgage rates should help sales rebound in the second half of the year, but given it will take time for household incomes and savings to recover we doubt existing home sales will have returned to their pre-virus level by end-2022.
  • Homeowner Market: Homebuilding & House Prices – Given the strong position homebuilding was in prior to the virus outbreak, builders would normally look through a temporary hit to demand. But disruption to supply chains and restrictions on movement mean single-family starts will drop back to around 700,000 annualised in the second quarter. Government action to limit foreclosures will prevent a rise in forced sellers, and that will keep house price falls to a relatively modest 4% y/y.
  • Rental Market: Demand & Supply – Record high unemployment means household formation will grind to halt in the second quarter, leading to a sharp fall in rental demand. That will push absorption rates for new apartments to record lows, although the overall apartment rental vacancy rate will see a more modest rise to around 5.5% as existing tenants are unable to move.
  • Rental Market: Rental Growth & Returns – The hit to incomes from the coronavirus will lead to the first annual fall in effective rents since the financial crisis. We expect growth will bottom out at around -1% y/y in the third quarter. Yield rises will drive a 10% fall in capital values this year, but these will mostly be made up in 2021.
  • State Chart Pack

Main Forecasts

Table 1: National Economic Indicators

2020

2021

Annual (% y/y)

 

Q1f

Q2f

Q3f

Q4f

Q1f

Q2f

Q3f

Q4f

2018

2019

2020f

2021f

2022f

GDP

(% q/q Ann.)

-3.5

-40.0

18.5

21.5

8.0

5.0

4.0

3.3

2.9

2.3

-5.5

7.0

3.3

Real Pers. Disp. Income

(% q/q Ann.)

3.2

-34.0

19.3

6.7

3.5

2.6

2.8

3.0

4.0

2.9

-3.6

3.0

3.0

Unemployment Rate

(%)

3.8

17.0

7.5

6.2

6.0

5.9

5.7

5.6

3.9

3.7

7.4

5.8

5.3

CPI Inflation

(%)

1.4

-0.4

0.1

0.4

1.2

2.8

2.3

1.8

2.4

1.8

0.4

2.0

1.9

Fed Funds Rate2

(%)

1.63

0.13

0.13

0.13

0.13

0.13

0.13

0.13

2.38

1.63

0.13

0.13

0.13

10-Year Treas. Yield2

(%)

0.7

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.8

1.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

30-Year Mtge Rate2

(%)

3.6

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

4.9

4.0

3.2

3.1

3.1

Table 2: Homeonwer Market Indicators

2020

2021

Year Average Forecasts

 

 

Q1f

Q2f

Q3f

Q4f

Q1f

Q2f

Q3f

Q4f

2018

2019

2020f

2021f

2022f

Case-Shiller Prices

(%q/q)

1.2

-0.7

-1.9

-1.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(%y/y)2

3.9

2.4

-0.2

-3.0

-4.0

-3.4

-1.5

0.0

4.9

3.4

-3.0

0.0

3.0

Total Home Sales

(Mill, Ann.)

6.2

3.2

3.9

4.7

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.9

6.0

4.5

5.4

5.9

(%y/y)

6.2

-47.1

-37.0

-23.8

-15.5

70.8

43.0

20.3

-3.2

1.1

-25.6

21.6

8.0

New Sales

(Mill, Ann.)

0.7

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.5

0.7

0.8

(%y/y)

11.4

-47.0

-35.5

-19.7

-11.4

94.3

55.6

26.3

-0.3

11.3

-22.8

30.5

9.4

Existing Sales

(Mill, Ann.)

5.5

2.8

3.4

4.1

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.3

5.3

3.9

4.8

5.1

(%y/y)

5.5

-47.1

-37.2

-24.4

-16.1

68.0

41.2

19.5

-3.5

-0.1

-26.0

20.4

7.7

Homes For Sale

(Mill.)

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

1.9

2.0

2.1

(%y/y)

-10.2

-10.5

-8.0

-4.4

3.2

5.5

7.2

8.4

-0.1

-0.2

-8.3

6.1

3.8

New

(Mill.)

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

(%y/y)

-5.6

-3.3

-0.6

0.3

3.1

7.7

8.4

9.0

13.9

5.3

-2.3

7.0

3.3

Existing1

(Mill.)

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.7

(%y/y)

-11.2

-11.8

-9.3

-5.3

3.2

5.1

7.0

8.3

-2.2

-1.2

-9.5

5.9

3.9

Single-Family Starts

(000s, Ann.)

962

700

800

900

950

990

1000

1010

873

894

841

988

1035

(%y/y)

11.3

-17.4

-10.5

-7.2

-1.2

41.4

25.0

12.2

8.5

2.4

1.3

9.2

4.5

Table 3: Rental Market Indicators

2020

2021

Year Average Forecasts

Q1f

Q2f

Q3f

Q4f

Q1f

Q2f

Q3f

Q4f

2018

2019

2020f

2021f

2022f

Multifamily Starts

(000s, Ann.)

504

280

290

300

310

320

320

320

377

404

344

318

320

(% y/y)

44.4

-31.5

-25.3

-36.3

-38.5

14.3

10.3

6.7

5.7

7.2

-15.0

-7.6

0.8

Rental Vacancy Rate

(%)

4.8

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.0

4.7

4.7

5.3

5.1

5.0

Effective Apt Rents

(% y/y)

3.2

0.9

-1.1

-1.1

-0.9

0.1

1.6

2.0

4.6

4.4

0.5

0.7

3.1

MSCI NOI Yield

(%)

4.1

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.4

4.3

4.1

MSCI Total Return

(%)

5.6

-3.8

-7.7

-5.0

-2.9

7.9

12.8

13.3

5.3

5.6

-2.7

7.8

11.4

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics. 1Seasonally-adjusted by Capital Economics. 2End Period.


Economic Backdrop

Virus disruption will only be partly reversed in H2

  • As a result of the coronavirus and the containment measures put in place to constrain its spread, we now anticipate an unprecedented 40% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP, with the unemployment rate spiking to between 15% and 20% within a few months. Even allowing for a recovery in the second half of the year, we estimate that GDP growth for this year as a whole will be -5.5%. (See Chart 1.)
  • We do expect the recovery to continue into next year, with GDP growth of 7.0% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022. Nevertheless, even by the end of 2022, our forecasts imply that the level of real GDP will still be 2% lower than we previously projected three months ago. (See Chart 2.) We also anticipate some permanent scarring in the labour market, with the unemployment rate still at 5% at end-2022, above the pre-crisis level.
  • With non-essential businesses shuttered across most of the country and shelter-in-place orders enacted in many states, the hit to the economy is bound to be very substantial. Our assumption is that the number of new cases peaks in late April and then falls to near-zero by the end of the second quarter. But there is tremendous uncertainty about exactly how bad the damage will be, not least because it depends on the growth in new infections.
  • In contrast to traditional downturns, the impact of this recession will be concentrated in the services sector rather than manufacturing, with activity in non-food retail, food services, accommodation and air transportation decimated by the containment measures introduced. (See Chart 3.)
  • The surge in unemployment will be particularly pronounced because those sectors account for a much higher share of total employment than total GDP. (See Chart 4.) More than 21 million jobless claims have been lodged in the past four weeks, as workers have been furloughed. (See Chart 5.)
  • That suggests the unemployment rate will surge to between 15% and 20% within another month or two. (See Chart 6.) But, again, to stress the uncertainty, an unemployment rate above 20% is possible. As the economy re-opens in the third quarter, however, we expect the unemployment rate to drop back faster than it would in a normal recovery, since many workers will be recalled from temporary layoffs.
  • The crisis has already triggered an unprecedented response from monetary and fiscal policy, but all that will do is mitigate the medium-term damage rather than lessen the hit to GDP during the pandemic. The $2.2trn fiscal stimulus is a mix of direct support to households and businesses, loan guarantees and funds to allow the Fed to leverage its various loan and asset purchase programs. The latter could see the Fed’s balance sheet expand from $4trn pre-virus to up to $10trn, equivalent to 50% of GDP. At the same time, the Federal budget deficit is now on track to hit 10% of GDP this year. (See Chart 7.)
  • In the near-term, the collapse in energy prices will drive headline inflation slightly below zero, with only a limited decline in core inflation. (See Chart 8.) In the long run, however, the big question is whether the unprecedented policy support eventually triggers a return to a higher inflation environment.

Economic Backdrop Charts

Chart 1: Real GDP

Chart 2: Real GDP ($tn)

Chart 3: Markit Survey-Based Activity Indices

Chart 4: Selected Industry Shares

Chart 5: Initial Jobless Claims (000s)

Chart 6: Unemployment Rate (%)

Chart 7: Federal Budget Balance (As % of GDP)

Chart 8: CPI Inflation (%)

Sources: Refinitiv, Markit, C.E.


Homeowner Market – Valuation, Affordability & Activity

Home sales to drop to record lows

  • A rush to liquidity following the coronavirus outbreak led to disruption in the MBS market, and as a result the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate blew out to an 11-year high (See Chart 9.)
  • The Fed responded by resuming large-scale purchase of agency MBS. Fed holdings of agency MBS had increased to $1.456tn by the start of April, from $1.367tn in the middle of March. (See Chart 10.)
  • That helped stabilise the market, and by the end of March mortgage rates had dropped to a record low 3.47%. But capacity constraints at lenders argue against a further significant narrowing in the spread in the short term, and banks will remain cautious as long as the coronavirus poses a risk to household incomes. Accordingly, we doubt mortgage rates will fall below 3.2% in 2020. The spread will eventually drop back to its 2019 average, but a slight rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.0% by end-2020 means mortgage rates are set to hold steady at around 3.1% in 2021 and 2022. (See Chart 11.)
  • Even with mortgage rates at record lows, applications for home purchase have seen a sharp decline, as worries over jobs and incomes have soared and the inability to view properties has cut home demand. (See Chart 12.) By the second week of April applications were down 42% from their late January peak.
  • Social distancing requirements will lead to a sharp fall in home sales, as buyers are unable to head out to view properties and many aspects of the home buying process – such as appraisals – become harder to carry out. It is therefore not surprising that homebuilders’ and realtors’ sales expectations both collapsed in March. (See Chart 13.)
  • Consumer sentiment has also dipped, but the decline has been more modest. According to Fannie Mae, the net share of households seeing now as a good time to buy only dropped to 20% in March. (See Chart 14.) But there was a sharper drop in the net share seeing now as a good time to sell, to its lowest level since end-2016.
  • That implies the inventory of homes for sale will behave differently during this downturn compared to the financial crisis. Back then, a surge in forced sellers pushed the number homes for sale to a record high. But widespread forbearance will prevent any rise in forced sellers this year, and potential sellers will hold back listing until activity returns to normal. Homebuilders will also delay putting completed properties on the market. Therefore, even as home sales collapse, our best guess is that the existing and new home inventory will largely hold steady at 1.6m and 320,000 respectively in 2020, and then pick-up as the economy recovers over the next couple of years. (See Chart 15.)
  • The outlook is far more uncertain than usual, but we expect home sales will see a drop of around 50% between the first and second quarters. (See Chart 16.) Pent-up demand from the spring selling season should then help sales jump back in the second half of the year, but it will take time for households’ income and savings to recover. Accordingly, at 5.2m annualised by end-2022 existing home sales will not have returned to their pre-virus level. Healthier inventory should help new home sales recover to 770,000 annualised, slightly above their level at the start of 2020.

Valuation, Affordability & Activity Charts

Chart 9: Spread between 10-Yr Treasury Yield & 30-Yr Mortgage Rate (bps)

Chart 10: Fed Holdings of MBS ($bn)

Chart 11: 10-Year Treasury Yield & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (%)

Chart 12: Mortgage Applications (Index)

Chart 13: Realtor & NAHB Sales Expectations (% Bal.)

Chart 14: Net Good Time to Buy & Sell (%)

Chart 15: Inventory of Homes for Sale (Millions)

Chart 16: Home Sales (Millions Ann.)

Sources: Refinitiv, MBA, NAR, C. Bureau, NAHB, F. Mae., C.E.


Homeowner Market – Homebuilding & House Prices

Housing starts to suffer permanent loss

  • The impact of the coronavirus is clear to see in the latest NAHB measure of homebuilder confidence, which in April recorded its largest month-on-month decline since records began in 1985. (See Chart 17.) However, as a balance, that reflects the breadth of home builder concerns, rather than its depth.
  • Concerns over the homebuilding outlook have also been reflected in lumber price futures. (See Chart 18.) Prices saw a 43% drop between late February and early April. However, prices have since staged a small recovery.
  • That is not pointing to a collapse in single-family home construction. Indeed, while homebuilder share prices are down 40% from their recent peak, compared to an 18% fall for the market as a whole, values are down a less dramatic 10% y/y. (See Chart 19.) That argues against a crash in housing starts over the next few months.
  • That fits with our view that homebuilders will, if they can, look through a temporary hit to demand. After all, the sector was in very good shape prior to the coronavirus. Record low existing home inventory had supported demand, and single-family starts had reached a 12-year high at the end of 2019.
  • That said, disruption to supply chains and the labour market mean a significant decline in starts is unavoidable. We anticipate a drop to around 700,000 annualised in the second quarter, down 27% compared to the first quarter. That would be the largest quarter-on-quarter fall since records began in 1959. (See Chart 20.) As supply chains normalise, and builders return to work, starts should then reverse some of that dip, helped by the large number of backlogged building permits. However, given lot, labour and material shortages, we doubt the deficit built will be fully made up. We are forecasting starts will end 2022 at just over 1m annualised, a level we previously thought would be reached by end-2021.
  • Despite the collapse in home sales we are forecasting, a house price crash should be avoided. With mortgage forbearance available to all, and support to household incomes, will prevent a rise in foreclosures this year. (See Chart 21.) That will avoid the surge in forced sellers which caused the crash in house prices during the financial crisis.
  • That said, the hit to household incomes and savings, as well as increased bank caution, will lead to a modest drop in prices. Indeed, consumer house price expectations have already seen a sharp decline. Expectations for growth over the next 12-months on the Fannie Mae survey dropped to 0.7% in March, the lowest since the end of 2011. (See Chart 22.)
  • We therefore anticipate annual house price growth on the Case-Shiller measure will drop to -4% by the first quarter of 2021. (See Chart 23.) That is broadly in line with the recent fall in REIT prices. (See Chart 24 and Update.) House prices should then flatten out, before an improvement in employment and incomes, coupled with close to record-low mortgage rates, lead to a rise of around 3% in 2022.

Homebuilding & House Prices Charts

Chart 17: NAHB Homebuilder Confidence (% Bal.)

Chart 18: Lumber Price Futures ($ per 1,000 Sq.Ft.)

Chart 19: SF Housing Starts & S&P H’builders (% y/y)

Chart 20: SF Housing Starts (000s Ann.)

Chart 21: 30+ Day Mortgage Delinquency & Foreclosure Start Rate (%)

Chart 22: House Price Expectations (%, Next 12-Months)

Chart 23: House Price Forecast (Case-Shiller Index)

Chart 24: Residential REIT & House Prices (% y/y)

Sources: Refinitiv, C. Bureau, NAHB, C-Shiller, NY Fed, F. Mae, MBA, C.E.


Rental Market – Demand & Supply

Rental demand to fall as household formation stalls

  • Prior to the arrival of the coronavirus there were signs of a gradual tightening in rental markets. Respondents to the NMHC survey have reported tightening apartment conditions on balance in each of the past five quarters, and the NAHB has reported falling vacancy rates. (See Chart 25.)
  • That reflects a strong labour market supporting household formation and rental demand. Households have increased by over 1.18 million year-on-year in each of the past nine quarters. (See Chart 26.) But with the coronavirus pushing unemployment to record highs, household formation will grind to a halt over the next couple of quarters.
  • That will lead to a sharp downturn in rental demand. Alongside restrictions on movement, that means absorption rates for new apartments are set to fall to record lows. We are anticipating a drop in the three-month rate on the Census Bureau measure to just 40% in the second quarter. (See Chart 27.)
  • Based on multifamily starts over the past two years, the number of completed apartments in 2020 would have matched the high volume seen over the past couple of years. (See Chart 28.) But developers will respond to the drop in demand by delaying the completion of some apartments, if only because they will be unable to market them with movement restrictions in place.
  • Disruption to supply chains and workers staying at home due to the coronavirus mean multifamily starts are set for a sharp slowdown in the second quarter. We anticipate a drop to 280,000 annualised, and then a recovery to 320,000 annualised by the start of 2022. (See Chart 29.)
  • The record fall in employment, and subsequent hit to incomes, would normally be expected to lead to a surge in the vacancy rate. Indeed, based on past form it will rise above the peak seen during the financial crisis. (See Chart 30.)
  • But a short-term collapse in turnover will have less of an impact on overall vacancy rates than usually seen. After all, existing tenants will have difficulty seeking out a new apartment or buying a home, and measures have been put in place to prevent evictions. That said, there will be some tenants at the end of leases who will take the opportunity to move in with friends and family while the outbreak plays out. We therefore anticipate a rise in the REIS apartment vacancy rate to 5.5% in the second quarter. (See Chart 31.)
  • It will then trend down, helped by pent-up demand built up during the movement restrictions. After all, the fundamentals for the sector were strong prior to the outbreak, with a large number of young Americans living with their parents a source of future demand. (See Chart 32.) That said, longer-term damage to income and savings will keep the vacancy rate above its end-2019 rate of 4.7% over the next three years.

Rental Demand & Supply Charts

Chart 25: Surveys of Market Tightness

Chart 26: Ann. Household Formation (Millions)

Chart 27: Three-month Absorption Rate (%)

Chart 28: MF Starts for Rent & Comp. (S.Adj., 000s)

Chart 29: MF Housing Starts (000s Ann.)

Chart 30: MF Rental Vacancy Rate & Employment Growth

Chart 31: REIS Apartment Vacancy Rate (%)

Chart 32: Young Living with Parents (%)

Sources: Refinitiv, C. Bureau, NAHB, NMHC, REIS, C.E.


Rental Market – Rental Growth & Returns

Rental growth to turn negative for first time since financial crisis

  • The relatively modest rise in the rental vacancy rate we are anticipating would normally be consistent with a drop in effective rental to only around 2.5% y/y (See Chart 33.) However, the special circumstances of the current downturn mean rental growth is set to turn negative for the first time since the financial crisis.
  • For a start, rents are vulnerable to any disruption to household income. Prior to the crisis rents made up a record high share of incomes, so there is little breathing room if incomes drop back. (See Chart 34.)
  • The collapse in employment and GDP in the second quarter will mean incomes are also set for a sharp decline. Landlords will not be able to push through a rent hike while the economy is shut down. Indeed, Fannie Mae reported a sharp dip in rent expectations in March, to a four-year low. (See Chart 35.) And, even once activity starts to get back to normal, it will take time for incomes to recover.
  • That said, the anticipated short-lived nature of this downturn suggests the hit to rental growth will be smaller than that seen during the financial crisis. We expect annual effective rental growth will bottom out at around -1% y/y in the third quarter, and then see a recovery to 2.0% y/y by end-2021, and 3.5% y/y by end-2022. (See Chart 36.)
  • The surge in unemployment is also likely to lead to a rise in rent arrears. However, action to support incomes via improved unemployment benefits, and fiscal stimulus checks, should provide some relief. According to the latest apartment rent payment tracker from the NMHC, 84% of apartment households had made a full or partial rent payment by 12th April. (See Chart 37.) That compares to a rate of 90% by the middle of April 2019.
  • A widening in corporate bond spreads, to the widest they have been since 2009, points to a sharp rise in the risk premium for assets that rely on companies being able to pay off debts, suggesting a pessimistic read-through for property prices. But we don’t expect a repeat of the financial crisis, so the rise in apartment yields will be less severe. We anticipate a rise in yields from 4.1% in the final quarter of 2019 to 4.6% by the third quarter of 2020, before they gradually fall back to around 4.1% by end-2022. (See Chart 38.)
  • That rise in yields means capital value growth will turn negative. We expect values to drop by around 10% this year. That will push annual total returns down to -5%. (See Chart 39.) Much of that drop will then be reversed over the next couple of years, with capital value growth reaching around 9% y/y by the end of 2021, pushing total returns up to 13%. A further fall in yields in 2022 will take total returns to around 10% by the end of the year.
  • The expected drop in rental growth and capital values has been reflected in a decline in REIT pricing. That said, the 30% drop in the NAREIT apartment REIT index from its peak in late February has only taken values back to where they were in late 2018. (see Chart 40.) And, with risk-free interest rates set to be close to record lows for the next couple of years, that will provide support to valuations.

Rental Growth & Returns Charts

Chart 33: Rental Vac. Rate & Rental Growth (% y/y)

Chart 34: Rent as Share of Earn. (Index, 90-15 Avg.=100)

Chart 35: Rental Growth Expect. (%, Next 12-Mths)

Chart 36: REIS Effective Rental Growth (% y/y)

Chart 37: Share of Apartment Rent Paid by Day of Month (%)

Chart 38: MSCI Apt. NOI Yield (%)

Chart 39: Apartment Returns Breakdown (%)

Chart 40: Apartment REIT Price & 10-Yr Yield

Sources: Refinitiv, REIS, F.Mae, MSCI, NMHC, C.E.


State & City Chart Pack

Chart 41: Employment Growth (Q4 2019, % y/y)

Chart 42: Homeowner Vacancy Rates Relative to 1990-2018 Avg. (Q4 2019, % points)

Chart 43: FHFA House Price Growth (4-Qtr Avg. to Q4 2019, % y/y)

Chart 44: House Prices to Personal Income Per Capita (Q4 2019, % Over/Undervalued vs 1991-2018 Avg.)

Chart 45: Share of Mortgages with Negative Equity (Q4 2019, %)

Chart 46: Building Permits Per 1,000 People, Deviation from 1995-2018 Avg. (4-Qtr Avg. to Q4 2019)

Chart 47: Rental Vacancy Rates Relative to 1990-2018 Avg. (Q4 2019, % points)

Chart 48: Zillow Median Rent Index (Jan-20, % y/y)

Sources: Refinitiv, Census Bureau, FHFA, CoreLogic, Zillow


Matthew Pointon, Property Economist, matthew.pointon@capitaleconomics.com
Andrew Burrell, Chief Property Economist, andrew.burrell@capitaleconomics.com

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